Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium-term to Long-term Growth in China
China achieved average GDP growth of nearly 10 percent over the period 1978-2015. However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle-income status, and the normal tendency of economies is to slow down as they mature？ This paper re...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | China & world economy 2016-09, Vol.24 (5), p.20-41 |
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| creator | Lin, Justin Yifu Wan, Guanghua Morgan, Peter J. |
| description | China achieved average GDP growth of nearly 10 percent over the period 1978-2015. However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle-income status, and the normal tendency of economies is to slow down as they mature？ This paper reviews the recent literature on the determinants and outlook for real GDP growth in China and addresses some of the key issues, including identifying supply-side factors that can support continued strong growth under favorable conditions, as well as risk factors that might cause growth to fall short. The paper reviews supply-side determinants of growth using a growth accounting framework, and also assesses major demand-side factors driving potential growth, including exports, capital formation and household consumption. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/cwe.12173 |
| format | Article |
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However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle-income status, and the normal tendency of economies is to slow down as they mature？ This paper reviews the recent literature on the determinants and outlook for real GDP growth in China and addresses some of the key issues, including identifying supply-side factors that can support continued strong growth under favorable conditions, as well as risk factors that might cause growth to fall short. 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| identifier | ISSN: 1671-2234 |
| ispartof | China & world economy, 2016-09, Vol.24 (5), p.20-41 |
| issn | 1671-2234 1749-124X |
| language | eng |
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| source | National Center for Philosophy and Social Science Documentation (China); Wiley Online Library Journals |
| subjects | China D24 demand-side factors Economic growth Economic models GDP Gross Domestic Product long-term growth O47 O53 supply-side factors total factor productivity |
| title | Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium-term to Long-term Growth in China |
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