Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China
Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint d...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2016-08, Vol.30 (6), p.1641-1657 |
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| creator | Zhang, Runrun Chen, Xi Cheng, Qinbo Zhang, Zhicai Shi, Peng |
| description | Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint dependence structure of the reservoir storage and its relevant variables of precipitation and/or upstream outflow were analyzed for two cascade reservoirs in a headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Correlation analysis indicates that the reservoir storage in October (the end of the wet season) depends highly on the regional precipitation at time scales of several months, e.g., 7 months for the upstream and 9 months for the downstream. Additionally, the downstream storage is correlated with outflow from the upstream reservoir at the 5-month timescale significantly. For estimation of the joint probability of pairs of the storage and its relevant variables, univariate marginal distributions and bivariate copula were appropriately selected in terms of statistical tests. The bivariate return period of
T
(
X
<
x
,
Y
<
y
)
and
T
(
X
≤
x
,
Y
≥
y
)
and the conditional probability of
P
(
Y
≥
y
|
X
≤
x
)
were estimated by using the selected Clayton copula. The results from contour lines of the bivariate return period demonstrate that the probability of drought occurrences affected by both reservoir storage and precipitation/outflow is smaller than that by either of the variables. Meanwhile, the concurrent drought probability between precipitation and reservoir storage in the upstream is higher than that in the downstream. The estimated conditional probability offers useful information on how much the regular storage could be remained under some specified drought levels of precipitation/upstream outflow. Therefore, the results are helpful for improving the operation strategies of the cascade reservoirs for the adaptive management of drought under different climate variations. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s00477-016-1249-z |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1825555818</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>1825555818</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-f2606d1c560f74b68f2a1e824bfb5b3af09c171e7057f7c528f36348e5b40f43</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkc1qGzEUhYeSQEPiB8hO0E0WmUa_I82ymCZuMQSC90IaX9kqzsiVNC72rm9eTaeEEghEmytdvnOkq1NV1wR_JhjLu4Qxl7LGpKkJ5W19-lBdEM6amlHRnr3sOf5YzVLytmgEa1uCL6rf34PvM9rHYI31O5-PKLhyhM7vfTbZhx6Zfo0iJIiH4CNKOUSzAeRCROsYhs02I0jZP0-w71HeAtqCWf8yGSKyJpVeMR3bi8H4Up78AeItmm99b66qc2d2CWb_6mW1uv-6mi_q5ePDt_mXZd0xRXPtaIObNelEg53ktlGOGgKKcuussMw43HZEEpBYSCc7QZVjDeMKhOXYcXZZ3Uy2ZdSfQ3mwfvapg93O9BCGpImioixF1DtQrCSm5C_66RX6IwyxL3OMFGMtEXy8m0xUF0NKEZzex_Jf8agJ1mOCekpQlwT1mKA-FQ2dNKmw_Qbif85viv4ApHOfJw</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1803391544</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China</title><source>SpringerLink Journals</source><creator>Zhang, Runrun ; Chen, Xi ; Cheng, Qinbo ; Zhang, Zhicai ; Shi, Peng</creator><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Runrun ; Chen, Xi ; Cheng, Qinbo ; Zhang, Zhicai ; Shi, Peng</creatorcontrib><description>Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint dependence structure of the reservoir storage and its relevant variables of precipitation and/or upstream outflow were analyzed for two cascade reservoirs in a headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Correlation analysis indicates that the reservoir storage in October (the end of the wet season) depends highly on the regional precipitation at time scales of several months, e.g., 7 months for the upstream and 9 months for the downstream. Additionally, the downstream storage is correlated with outflow from the upstream reservoir at the 5-month timescale significantly. For estimation of the joint probability of pairs of the storage and its relevant variables, univariate marginal distributions and bivariate copula were appropriately selected in terms of statistical tests. The bivariate return period of
T
(
X
<
x
,
Y
<
y
)
and
T
(
X
≤
x
,
Y
≥
y
)
and the conditional probability of
P
(
Y
≥
y
|
X
≤
x
)
were estimated by using the selected Clayton copula. The results from contour lines of the bivariate return period demonstrate that the probability of drought occurrences affected by both reservoir storage and precipitation/outflow is smaller than that by either of the variables. Meanwhile, the concurrent drought probability between precipitation and reservoir storage in the upstream is higher than that in the downstream. The estimated conditional probability offers useful information on how much the regular storage could be remained under some specified drought levels of precipitation/upstream outflow. Therefore, the results are helpful for improving the operation strategies of the cascade reservoirs for the adaptive management of drought under different climate variations.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1436-3240</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1436-3259</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s00477-016-1249-z</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Adaptive management ; Aquatic Pollution ; Basins ; Cascades ; Chemistry and Earth Sciences ; Computational Intelligence ; Computer Science ; Correlation analysis ; Downstream ; Drought ; Droughts ; Dry season ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Environment ; Estimating techniques ; Headwaters ; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science ; Original Paper ; Outflow ; Physics ; Probability distribution ; Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes ; Rainy season ; Reservoir storage ; Reservoirs ; River basins ; Rivers ; Statistics for Engineering ; Streams ; Upstream ; Waste Water Technology ; Water Management ; Water outflow ; Water Pollution Control ; Water supply</subject><ispartof>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 2016-08, Vol.30 (6), p.1641-1657</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-f2606d1c560f74b68f2a1e824bfb5b3af09c171e7057f7c528f36348e5b40f43</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-f2606d1c560f74b68f2a1e824bfb5b3af09c171e7057f7c528f36348e5b40f43</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00477-016-1249-z$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00477-016-1249-z$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Runrun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chen, Xi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cheng, Qinbo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Zhicai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shi, Peng</creatorcontrib><title>Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China</title><title>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment</title><addtitle>Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess</addtitle><description>Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint dependence structure of the reservoir storage and its relevant variables of precipitation and/or upstream outflow were analyzed for two cascade reservoirs in a headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Correlation analysis indicates that the reservoir storage in October (the end of the wet season) depends highly on the regional precipitation at time scales of several months, e.g., 7 months for the upstream and 9 months for the downstream. Additionally, the downstream storage is correlated with outflow from the upstream reservoir at the 5-month timescale significantly. For estimation of the joint probability of pairs of the storage and its relevant variables, univariate marginal distributions and bivariate copula were appropriately selected in terms of statistical tests. The bivariate return period of
T
(
X
<
x
,
Y
<
y
)
and
T
(
X
≤
x
,
Y
≥
y
)
and the conditional probability of
P
(
Y
≥
y
|
X
≤
x
)
were estimated by using the selected Clayton copula. The results from contour lines of the bivariate return period demonstrate that the probability of drought occurrences affected by both reservoir storage and precipitation/outflow is smaller than that by either of the variables. Meanwhile, the concurrent drought probability between precipitation and reservoir storage in the upstream is higher than that in the downstream. The estimated conditional probability offers useful information on how much the regular storage could be remained under some specified drought levels of precipitation/upstream outflow. Therefore, the results are helpful for improving the operation strategies of the cascade reservoirs for the adaptive management of drought under different climate variations.</description><subject>Adaptive management</subject><subject>Aquatic Pollution</subject><subject>Basins</subject><subject>Cascades</subject><subject>Chemistry and Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Computational Intelligence</subject><subject>Computer Science</subject><subject>Correlation analysis</subject><subject>Downstream</subject><subject>Drought</subject><subject>Droughts</subject><subject>Dry season</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Environment</subject><subject>Estimating techniques</subject><subject>Headwaters</subject><subject>Math. Appl. in Environmental Science</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Outflow</subject><subject>Physics</subject><subject>Probability distribution</subject><subject>Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes</subject><subject>Rainy season</subject><subject>Reservoir storage</subject><subject>Reservoirs</subject><subject>River basins</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Statistics for Engineering</subject><subject>Streams</subject><subject>Upstream</subject><subject>Waste Water Technology</subject><subject>Water Management</subject><subject>Water outflow</subject><subject>Water Pollution Control</subject><subject>Water supply</subject><issn>1436-3240</issn><issn>1436-3259</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2016</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkc1qGzEUhYeSQEPiB8hO0E0WmUa_I82ymCZuMQSC90IaX9kqzsiVNC72rm9eTaeEEghEmytdvnOkq1NV1wR_JhjLu4Qxl7LGpKkJ5W19-lBdEM6amlHRnr3sOf5YzVLytmgEa1uCL6rf34PvM9rHYI31O5-PKLhyhM7vfTbZhx6Zfo0iJIiH4CNKOUSzAeRCROsYhs02I0jZP0-w71HeAtqCWf8yGSKyJpVeMR3bi8H4Up78AeItmm99b66qc2d2CWb_6mW1uv-6mi_q5ePDt_mXZd0xRXPtaIObNelEg53ktlGOGgKKcuussMw43HZEEpBYSCc7QZVjDeMKhOXYcXZZ3Uy2ZdSfQ3mwfvapg93O9BCGpImioixF1DtQrCSm5C_66RX6IwyxL3OMFGMtEXy8m0xUF0NKEZzex_Jf8agJ1mOCekpQlwT1mKA-FQ2dNKmw_Qbif85viv4ApHOfJw</recordid><startdate>20160801</startdate><enddate>20160801</enddate><creator>Zhang, Runrun</creator><creator>Chen, Xi</creator><creator>Cheng, Qinbo</creator><creator>Zhang, Zhicai</creator><creator>Shi, Peng</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>S0W</scope><scope>SOI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20160801</creationdate><title>Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China</title><author>Zhang, Runrun ; Chen, Xi ; Cheng, Qinbo ; Zhang, Zhicai ; Shi, Peng</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c382t-f2606d1c560f74b68f2a1e824bfb5b3af09c171e7057f7c528f36348e5b40f43</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2016</creationdate><topic>Adaptive management</topic><topic>Aquatic Pollution</topic><topic>Basins</topic><topic>Cascades</topic><topic>Chemistry and Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Computational Intelligence</topic><topic>Computer Science</topic><topic>Correlation analysis</topic><topic>Downstream</topic><topic>Drought</topic><topic>Droughts</topic><topic>Dry season</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Environment</topic><topic>Estimating techniques</topic><topic>Headwaters</topic><topic>Math. Appl. in Environmental Science</topic><topic>Original Paper</topic><topic>Outflow</topic><topic>Physics</topic><topic>Probability distribution</topic><topic>Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes</topic><topic>Rainy season</topic><topic>Reservoir storage</topic><topic>Reservoirs</topic><topic>River basins</topic><topic>Rivers</topic><topic>Statistics for Engineering</topic><topic>Streams</topic><topic>Upstream</topic><topic>Waste Water Technology</topic><topic>Water Management</topic><topic>Water outflow</topic><topic>Water Pollution Control</topic><topic>Water supply</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Runrun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Chen, Xi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Cheng, Qinbo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Zhicai</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Shi, Peng</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Science Journals</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>DELNET Engineering & Technology Collection</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Zhang, Runrun</au><au>Chen, Xi</au><au>Cheng, Qinbo</au><au>Zhang, Zhicai</au><au>Shi, Peng</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China</atitle><jtitle>Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment</jtitle><stitle>Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess</stitle><date>2016-08-01</date><risdate>2016</risdate><volume>30</volume><issue>6</issue><spage>1641</spage><epage>1657</epage><pages>1641-1657</pages><issn>1436-3240</issn><eissn>1436-3259</eissn><abstract>Reservoir storage plays an important role in water supply during the dry season when precipitation is insufficient. In a watershed where the streams are controlled by reservoirs, drought occurrences depend on not only precipitation variations but also reservoir regulation. In this study, the joint dependence structure of the reservoir storage and its relevant variables of precipitation and/or upstream outflow were analyzed for two cascade reservoirs in a headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China. Correlation analysis indicates that the reservoir storage in October (the end of the wet season) depends highly on the regional precipitation at time scales of several months, e.g., 7 months for the upstream and 9 months for the downstream. Additionally, the downstream storage is correlated with outflow from the upstream reservoir at the 5-month timescale significantly. For estimation of the joint probability of pairs of the storage and its relevant variables, univariate marginal distributions and bivariate copula were appropriately selected in terms of statistical tests. The bivariate return period of
T
(
X
<
x
,
Y
<
y
)
and
T
(
X
≤
x
,
Y
≥
y
)
and the conditional probability of
P
(
Y
≥
y
|
X
≤
x
)
were estimated by using the selected Clayton copula. The results from contour lines of the bivariate return period demonstrate that the probability of drought occurrences affected by both reservoir storage and precipitation/outflow is smaller than that by either of the variables. Meanwhile, the concurrent drought probability between precipitation and reservoir storage in the upstream is higher than that in the downstream. The estimated conditional probability offers useful information on how much the regular storage could be remained under some specified drought levels of precipitation/upstream outflow. Therefore, the results are helpful for improving the operation strategies of the cascade reservoirs for the adaptive management of drought under different climate variations.</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><doi>10.1007/s00477-016-1249-z</doi><tpages>17</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Adaptive management Aquatic Pollution Basins Cascades Chemistry and Earth Sciences Computational Intelligence Computer Science Correlation analysis Downstream Drought Droughts Dry season Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environment Estimating techniques Headwaters Math. Appl. in Environmental Science Original Paper Outflow Physics Probability distribution Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes Rainy season Reservoir storage Reservoirs River basins Rivers Statistics for Engineering Streams Upstream Waste Water Technology Water Management Water outflow Water Pollution Control Water supply |
| title | Joint probability of precipitation and reservoir storage for drought estimation in the headwater basin of the Huaihe River, China |
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