Does Belgrade (Serbia) need heat health warning system?
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vuln...
Gespeichert in:
| Veröffentlicht in: | Disaster prevention and management 2014-01, Vol.23 (5), p.494-507 |
|---|---|
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
| Format: | Artikel |
| Sprache: | eng |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| container_end_page | 507 |
|---|---|
| container_issue | 5 |
| container_start_page | 494 |
| container_title | Disaster prevention and management |
| container_volume | 23 |
| creator | B Stanojevic, Gorica B Spalevic, Aleksandra M Kokotovic, Vlasta N Stojilkovic, Jelena |
| description | Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach - The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected. Findings - The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1 degree C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent ( p |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1108/DPM-11-2013-0200 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1825504510</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>1825504510</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-c337t-d00af9e4928b473081f5b933ffd83023290ece9eff98d401a6495074bd0af8283</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkD1PwzAQhi0EEqWwM0ZiKYPh_JXYE4KWL6kIJGC2nOTcpkqTYqdC_fckKhMTy90Nz73S-xByzuCKMdDXs7cXyhjlwAQFDnBARixTmqYM4JCMwKSKCpXyY3IS4woAUsbMiGSzFmNyh_UiuBKTyTuGvHKXSYNYJkt03TDqbpl8u9BUzSKJu9jh-uaUHHlXRzz73WPy-XD_MX2i89fH5-ntnBZCZB0tAZw3KA3XucwEaOZVboTwvtQCuOAGsECD3htdSmAulUZBJvOy_9NcizGZ7HM3of3aYuzsuooF1rVrsN1GyzRXCqRi8A8UdJpBpkyPXvxBV-02NH0Ry0FLIaURaU_BnipCG2NAbzehWruwswzsIN320vvDDtLtIF38AKILcOU</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>2084344936</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Does Belgrade (Serbia) need heat health warning system?</title><source>Emerald A-Z Current Journals</source><source>Standard: Emerald eJournal Premier Collection</source><creator>B Stanojevic, Gorica ; B Spalevic, Aleksandra ; M Kokotovic, Vlasta ; N Stojilkovic, Jelena</creator><creatorcontrib>B Stanojevic, Gorica ; B Spalevic, Aleksandra ; M Kokotovic, Vlasta ; N Stojilkovic, Jelena</creatorcontrib><description>Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach - The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected. Findings - The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1 degree C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent ( p <0.0001), 2.2 percent ( p <0.0001) and 1.6 percent (insignificant for p <0.10) increase in cerebrovascular, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. Originality/value - Even thought the Law recognizes the heat wave as natural hazard, there is no concrete measures and action for prevention of excess mortality. It is shown that extreme temperature had numerous social consequences on city's residents in the summer 2007. Given the results the authors got, it is recommended that the HHWS should be implemented in health protection plans in Belgrade.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0965-3562</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1758-6100</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1108/DPM-11-2013-0200</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Bradford: Emerald Group Publishing Limited</publisher><subject>Air temperature ; Cardiovascular diseases ; Design analysis ; Duration ; Emergency preparedness ; Health ; Heat ; Heat waves ; Humidity ; Impact analysis ; Mathematical models ; Mean daily temperatures ; Minimum temperatures ; Mortality ; Nursing homes ; Poisson density functions ; Population ; Population density ; Public health ; Regression ; Regression analysis ; Regression models ; Residential density ; Statistical analysis ; Summer ; Temperature ; Temperature effects ; Temperature extremes ; Vulnerability ; Warning systems ; Weather ; Weather conditions</subject><ispartof>Disaster prevention and management, 2014-01, Vol.23 (5), p.494-507</ispartof><rights>Emerald Group Publishing Limited 2014</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c337t-d00af9e4928b473081f5b933ffd83023290ece9eff98d401a6495074bd0af8283</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c337t-d00af9e4928b473081f5b933ffd83023290ece9eff98d401a6495074bd0af8283</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,962,21676,27905,27906</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>B Stanojevic, Gorica</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>B Spalevic, Aleksandra</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>M Kokotovic, Vlasta</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>N Stojilkovic, Jelena</creatorcontrib><title>Does Belgrade (Serbia) need heat health warning system?</title><title>Disaster prevention and management</title><description>Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach - The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected. Findings - The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1 degree C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent ( p <0.0001), 2.2 percent ( p <0.0001) and 1.6 percent (insignificant for p <0.10) increase in cerebrovascular, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. Originality/value - Even thought the Law recognizes the heat wave as natural hazard, there is no concrete measures and action for prevention of excess mortality. It is shown that extreme temperature had numerous social consequences on city's residents in the summer 2007. Given the results the authors got, it is recommended that the HHWS should be implemented in health protection plans in Belgrade.</description><subject>Air temperature</subject><subject>Cardiovascular diseases</subject><subject>Design analysis</subject><subject>Duration</subject><subject>Emergency preparedness</subject><subject>Health</subject><subject>Heat</subject><subject>Heat waves</subject><subject>Humidity</subject><subject>Impact analysis</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>Mean daily temperatures</subject><subject>Minimum temperatures</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Nursing homes</subject><subject>Poisson density functions</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population density</subject><subject>Public health</subject><subject>Regression</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Residential density</subject><subject>Statistical analysis</subject><subject>Summer</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Temperature effects</subject><subject>Temperature extremes</subject><subject>Vulnerability</subject><subject>Warning systems</subject><subject>Weather</subject><subject>Weather conditions</subject><issn>0965-3562</issn><issn>1758-6100</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2014</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkD1PwzAQhi0EEqWwM0ZiKYPh_JXYE4KWL6kIJGC2nOTcpkqTYqdC_fckKhMTy90Nz73S-xByzuCKMdDXs7cXyhjlwAQFDnBARixTmqYM4JCMwKSKCpXyY3IS4woAUsbMiGSzFmNyh_UiuBKTyTuGvHKXSYNYJkt03TDqbpl8u9BUzSKJu9jh-uaUHHlXRzz73WPy-XD_MX2i89fH5-ntnBZCZB0tAZw3KA3XucwEaOZVboTwvtQCuOAGsECD3htdSmAulUZBJvOy_9NcizGZ7HM3of3aYuzsuooF1rVrsN1GyzRXCqRi8A8UdJpBpkyPXvxBV-02NH0Ry0FLIaURaU_BnipCG2NAbzehWruwswzsIN320vvDDtLtIF38AKILcOU</recordid><startdate>20140101</startdate><enddate>20140101</enddate><creator>B Stanojevic, Gorica</creator><creator>B Spalevic, Aleksandra</creator><creator>M Kokotovic, Vlasta</creator><creator>N Stojilkovic, Jelena</creator><general>Emerald Group Publishing Limited</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>0U~</scope><scope>1-H</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.0</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M0T</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20140101</creationdate><title>Does Belgrade (Serbia) need heat health warning system?</title><author>B Stanojevic, Gorica ; B Spalevic, Aleksandra ; M Kokotovic, Vlasta ; N Stojilkovic, Jelena</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c337t-d00af9e4928b473081f5b933ffd83023290ece9eff98d401a6495074bd0af8283</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2014</creationdate><topic>Air temperature</topic><topic>Cardiovascular diseases</topic><topic>Design analysis</topic><topic>Duration</topic><topic>Emergency preparedness</topic><topic>Health</topic><topic>Heat</topic><topic>Heat waves</topic><topic>Humidity</topic><topic>Impact analysis</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>Mean daily temperatures</topic><topic>Minimum temperatures</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Nursing homes</topic><topic>Poisson density functions</topic><topic>Population</topic><topic>Population density</topic><topic>Public health</topic><topic>Regression</topic><topic>Regression analysis</topic><topic>Regression models</topic><topic>Residential density</topic><topic>Statistical analysis</topic><topic>Summer</topic><topic>Temperature</topic><topic>Temperature effects</topic><topic>Temperature extremes</topic><topic>Vulnerability</topic><topic>Warning systems</topic><topic>Weather</topic><topic>Weather conditions</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>B Stanojevic, Gorica</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>B Spalevic, Aleksandra</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>M Kokotovic, Vlasta</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>N Stojilkovic, Jelena</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Global News & ABI/Inform Professional</collection><collection>Trade PRO</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Business Premium Collection</collection><collection>Technology Collection</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Research Library Prep</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Business Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Advanced</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Professional Standard</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>ProQuest Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global</collection><collection>Healthcare Administration Database</collection><collection>Research Library</collection><collection>Engineering Database</collection><collection>Research Library (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Business</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Engineering Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Disaster prevention and management</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>B Stanojevic, Gorica</au><au>B Spalevic, Aleksandra</au><au>M Kokotovic, Vlasta</au><au>N Stojilkovic, Jelena</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Does Belgrade (Serbia) need heat health warning system?</atitle><jtitle>Disaster prevention and management</jtitle><date>2014-01-01</date><risdate>2014</risdate><volume>23</volume><issue>5</issue><spage>494</spage><epage>507</epage><pages>494-507</pages><issn>0965-3562</issn><eissn>1758-6100</eissn><abstract>Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether is Belgrade (Serbia) suitable candidate for introduction of Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). Belgrade has high population density, considerable share of built up area and lot of multi floor buildings that are factors of heat-health vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach - The authors analyzed the impact of weather conditions on human health in Belgrade during the summer 2007 that was extremely warm in Southeastern Europe and Serbia. Daily cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality counts were used in Poisson regression model with air temperature as predictor variable. Also, three different heat wave indices (Warm Spell Duration Index, apparent temperature and index based on daily minimum temperature) were tested in order to estimate their ability to capture episodes with mortality higher than expected. Findings - The temperature has the highest influence on cerebrovascular and cardiovascular mortality, while slightly modifies respiratory mortality. According to regression equation, a 1 degree C increase in mean daily temperature is associated with a 4.6 percent ( p <0.0001), 2.2 percent ( p <0.0001) and 1.6 percent (insignificant for p <0.10) increase in cerebrovascular, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. Originality/value - Even thought the Law recognizes the heat wave as natural hazard, there is no concrete measures and action for prevention of excess mortality. It is shown that extreme temperature had numerous social consequences on city's residents in the summer 2007. Given the results the authors got, it is recommended that the HHWS should be implemented in health protection plans in Belgrade.</abstract><cop>Bradford</cop><pub>Emerald Group Publishing Limited</pub><doi>10.1108/DPM-11-2013-0200</doi><tpages>14</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0965-3562 |
| ispartof | Disaster prevention and management, 2014-01, Vol.23 (5), p.494-507 |
| issn | 0965-3562 1758-6100 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1825504510 |
| source | Emerald A-Z Current Journals; Standard: Emerald eJournal Premier Collection |
| subjects | Air temperature Cardiovascular diseases Design analysis Duration Emergency preparedness Health Heat Heat waves Humidity Impact analysis Mathematical models Mean daily temperatures Minimum temperatures Mortality Nursing homes Poisson density functions Population Population density Public health Regression Regression analysis Regression models Residential density Statistical analysis Summer Temperature Temperature effects Temperature extremes Vulnerability Warning systems Weather Weather conditions |
| title | Does Belgrade (Serbia) need heat health warning system? |
| url | https://sfx.bib-bvb.de/sfx_tum?ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info:ofi/enc:UTF-8&ctx_tim=2025-01-19T04%3A26%3A59IST&url_ver=Z39.88-2004&url_ctx_fmt=infofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rfr_id=info:sid/primo.exlibrisgroup.com:primo3-Article-proquest_cross&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Does%20Belgrade%20(Serbia)%20need%20heat%20health%20warning%20system?&rft.jtitle=Disaster%20prevention%20and%20management&rft.au=B%20Stanojevic,%20Gorica&rft.date=2014-01-01&rft.volume=23&rft.issue=5&rft.spage=494&rft.epage=507&rft.pages=494-507&rft.issn=0965-3562&rft.eissn=1758-6100&rft_id=info:doi/10.1108/DPM-11-2013-0200&rft_dat=%3Cproquest_cross%3E1825504510%3C/proquest_cross%3E%3Curl%3E%3C/url%3E&disable_directlink=true&sfx.directlink=off&sfx.report_link=0&rft_id=info:oai/&rft_pqid=2084344936&rft_id=info:pmid/&rfr_iscdi=true |