Predicting Changes in the Radio Emission Fluxes of Extragalactic Sources
Data from long-term monitoring with the 26-m University of Michigan radio telescope at a frequency of 14.5 GHz (1974-2011) is used to predict changes in the radio emission fluxes from the extragalactic sources 3C273, 3C120, 3C345, 3C446, 3C454.3, OJ287, OT081, and BLLac. The predictions are based on...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Astrophysics 2016-06, Vol.59 (2), p.213-226 |
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| creator | Sukharev, A. L. Ryabov, M. I. Donskikh, G. I. |
| description | Data from long-term monitoring with the 26-m University of Michigan radio telescope at a frequency of 14.5 GHz (1974-2011) is used to predict changes in the radio emission fluxes from the extragalactic sources 3C273, 3C120, 3C345, 3C446, 3C454.3, OJ287, OT081, and BLLac. The predictions are based on data on the major periods of variability and their durations obtained by wavelet analysis. The radio emission fluxes from the sources 3C345, 3C446, and 3C454.3, which have complicated variabilities, are predicted using an autoregression linear prediction method. This yields a forecast of the flux variations extending up to 5 years. Harmonic prediction is used for another group of sources, BLLac, OJ287, and OT081, with rapid variability. This approach yielded forecasts extending 4-9 years. For the sources 3C273 and 3C120, which have stable long periods, the harmonic method was also used and yielded a forecast extending up to 16 years. The reliability of the prediction was confirmed by independent observational data from the MOJAVE program for 2011-2015. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10511-016-9428-7 |
| format | Article |
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For the sources 3C273 and 3C120, which have stable long periods, the harmonic method was also used and yielded a forecast extending up to 16 years. 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Harmonic prediction is used for another group of sources, BLLac, OJ287, and OT081, with rapid variability. This approach yielded forecasts extending 4-9 years. For the sources 3C273 and 3C120, which have stable long periods, the harmonic method was also used and yielded a forecast extending up to 16 years. 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The radio emission fluxes from the sources 3C345, 3C446, and 3C454.3, which have complicated variabilities, are predicted using an autoregression linear prediction method. This yields a forecast of the flux variations extending up to 5 years. Harmonic prediction is used for another group of sources, BLLac, OJ287, and OT081, with rapid variability. This approach yielded forecasts extending 4-9 years. For the sources 3C273 and 3C120, which have stable long periods, the harmonic method was also used and yielded a forecast extending up to 16 years. The reliability of the prediction was confirmed by independent observational data from the MOJAVE program for 2011-2015.</abstract><cop>New York</cop><pub>Springer US</pub><doi>10.1007/s10511-016-9428-7</doi><tpages>14</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Astronomy Astrophysics Astrophysics and Astroparticles Astrophysics and Cosmology Emissions Fluxes Harmonics Linear prediction Measurement Methods Monitoring Observations Observations and Techniques Physics Physics and Astronomy Pollution sources Radio astronomy Radio emission Radio sources (Astronomical bodies) Radio spectrum Radio telescopes Space Exploration and Astronautics Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics Spectra Stars & galaxies Wavelet analysis |
| title | Predicting Changes in the Radio Emission Fluxes of Extragalactic Sources |
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