Development assistance for health: past trends, associations, and the future of international financial flows for health

Summary Background Disbursements of development assistance for health (DAH) have risen substantially during the past several decades. More recently, the international community's attention has turned to other international challenges, introducing uncertainty about the future of disbursements for DAH. Methods We collected audited budget statements, annual reports, and project-level records from the main international agencies that disbursed DAH from 1990 to the end of 2015. We standardised and combined records to provide a comprehensive set of annual disbursements. We tracked each dollar of DAH back to the source and forward to the recipient. We removed transfers between agencies to avoid double-counting and adjusted for inflation. We classified assistance into nine primary health focus areas: HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, maternal health, newborn and child health, other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, Ebola, and sector-wide approaches and health system strengthening. For our statistical analysis, we grouped these health focus areas into two categories: MDG-related focus areas (HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, child and newborn health, and maternal health) and non-MDG-related focus areas (other infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, sector-wide approaches, and other). We used linear regression to test for structural shifts in disbursement patterns at the onset of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs; ie, from 2000) and the global financial crisis (impact estimated to occur in 2010). We built on past trends and associations with an ensemble model to estimate DAH through the end of 2040. Findings In 2015, US$36·4 billion of DAH was disbursed, marking the fifth consecutive year of little change in the amount of resources provided by global health development partners. Between 2000 and 2009, DAH increased at 11·3% per year, whereas between 2010 and 2015, annual growth was just 1·2%. In 2015, 29·7% of DAH was for HIV/AIDS, 17·9% was for child and newborn health, and 9·8% was for maternal health. Linear regression identifies three distinct periods of growth in DAH. Between 2000 and 2009, MDG-related DAH increased by $290·4 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 174·3 million to 406·5 million) per year. These increases were significantly greater than were increases in non-MDG DAH during the same period (p=0·009), and were also significantly greater than increases in the previous period (p