Prospective validation and assessment of cardiovascular and offspring risk models for pregnant women with congenital heart disease

Objectives Adequate prepregnancy prediction of maternal cardiovascular and offspring risk is important for counselling and management of pregnancy in women with congenital heart disease (CHD). Therefore we performed a study to identify the optimal assessment strategy for estimating the risk of pregn...

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Veröffentlicht in:Heart (British Cardiac Society) 2014-09, Vol.100 (17), p.1373-1381
Hauptverfasser: Balci, Ali, Sollie-Szarynska, Krystyna M, van der Bijl, Antoinette G L, Ruys, Titia P E, Mulder, Barbara J M, Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W, van Dijk, Arie P J, Wajon, Elly M C J, Vliegen, Hubert W, Drenthen, Willem, Hillege, Hans L, Aarnoudse, Jan G, van Veldhuisen, Dirk J, Pieper, Petronella G
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container_issue 17
container_start_page 1373
container_title Heart (British Cardiac Society)
container_volume 100
creator Balci, Ali
Sollie-Szarynska, Krystyna M
van der Bijl, Antoinette G L
Ruys, Titia P E
Mulder, Barbara J M
Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W
van Dijk, Arie P J
Wajon, Elly M C J
Vliegen, Hubert W
Drenthen, Willem
Hillege, Hans L
Aarnoudse, Jan G
van Veldhuisen, Dirk J
Pieper, Petronella G
description Objectives Adequate prepregnancy prediction of maternal cardiovascular and offspring risk is important for counselling and management of pregnancy in women with congenital heart disease (CHD). Therefore we performed a study to identify the optimal assessment strategy for estimating the risk of pregnancy in women with CHD. Methods In this prospective study, we determined the outcomes of 213 pregnancies in 203 women with CHD. The ZAHARA I (Zwangerschap bij Aangeboren HARtAfwijkingen I) and CARPREG (CARdiac disease in PREGnancy) risk scores were calculated for each pregnancy, as was the total number of cardiovascular (TPc) or offspring risk predictors (TPo) from these and other studies combined. Pregnancies were also classified according to the modified WHO classification of maternal cardiovascular risk and according to disease complexity (DC). Results Maternal cardiovascular events occurred during 22 pregnancies (10.3%). Offspring events occurred during 77 pregnancies in 81 children (37.3%). Cardiovascular and offspring event rates increased with higher risk scores, higher TPc or TPo, higher WHO class and greater DC. The highest area under the curve (AUC) for maternal cardiovascular risk was achieved by the WHO class (AUC: 0.77, p
doi_str_mv 10.1136/heartjnl-2014-305597
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Therefore we performed a study to identify the optimal assessment strategy for estimating the risk of pregnancy in women with CHD. Methods In this prospective study, we determined the outcomes of 213 pregnancies in 203 women with CHD. The ZAHARA I (Zwangerschap bij Aangeboren HARtAfwijkingen I) and CARPREG (CARdiac disease in PREGnancy) risk scores were calculated for each pregnancy, as was the total number of cardiovascular (TPc) or offspring risk predictors (TPo) from these and other studies combined. Pregnancies were also classified according to the modified WHO classification of maternal cardiovascular risk and according to disease complexity (DC). Results Maternal cardiovascular events occurred during 22 pregnancies (10.3%). Offspring events occurred during 77 pregnancies in 81 children (37.3%). Cardiovascular and offspring event rates increased with higher risk scores, higher TPc or TPo, higher WHO class and greater DC. The highest area under the curve (AUC) for maternal cardiovascular risk was achieved by the WHO class (AUC: 0.77, p&lt;0.0001). AUC for the ZAHARA I risk score was 0.71 (p=0.001), and for the CARPREG risk score 0.57 (p=0.32). All models performed insufficiently in predicting offspring events (AUC≤0.6). Conclusions The WHO classification is the best available risk assessment model for estimating cardiovascular risk in pregnant women with CHD. None of the offspring prediction models perform adequately in our cohort.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1355-6037</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1468-201X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2014-305597</identifier><identifier>PMID: 25034822</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: BMJ Publishing Group LTD</publisher><subject>Alcohol ; Area Under Curve ; Cardiac arrhythmia ; Cardiovascular disease ; Classification ; Clinical medicine ; Congenital diseases ; Decision Support Techniques ; Defects ; Family medical history ; Female ; Fetal Death ; Germany ; Health risk assessment ; Heart Defects, Congenital - complications ; Heart Defects, Congenital - diagnosis ; Heart Defects, Congenital - mortality ; Heart failure ; Humans ; Infant Mortality ; Infant, Newborn ; Maternal Mortality ; Mortality ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - diagnosis ; Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - etiology ; Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - mortality ; Prognosis ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; ROC Curve ; Studies ; Womens health</subject><ispartof>Heart (British Cardiac Society), 2014-09, Vol.100 (17), p.1373-1381</ispartof><rights>Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions</rights><rights>Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.</rights><rights>Copyright: 2014 Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-b454t-974c333fd0b81ebfb0eec1a97d4be24c39c505c81765324062ac9e3e518fbcc93</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-b454t-974c333fd0b81ebfb0eec1a97d4be24c39c505c81765324062ac9e3e518fbcc93</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttp://heart.bmj.com/content/100/17/1373.full.pdf$$EPDF$$P50$$Gbmj$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttp://heart.bmj.com/content/100/17/1373.full$$EHTML$$P50$$Gbmj$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>114,115,314,780,784,3196,23571,27924,27925,77600,77631</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25034822$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Balci, Ali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sollie-Szarynska, Krystyna M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Bijl, Antoinette G L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ruys, Titia P E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mulder, Barbara J M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Dijk, Arie P J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wajon, Elly M C J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vliegen, Hubert W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Drenthen, Willem</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hillege, Hans L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aarnoudse, Jan G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Veldhuisen, Dirk J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pieper, Petronella G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>ZAHARA-II investigators</creatorcontrib><title>Prospective validation and assessment of cardiovascular and offspring risk models for pregnant women with congenital heart disease</title><title>Heart (British Cardiac Society)</title><addtitle>Heart</addtitle><description>Objectives Adequate prepregnancy prediction of maternal cardiovascular and offspring risk is important for counselling and management of pregnancy in women with congenital heart disease (CHD). Therefore we performed a study to identify the optimal assessment strategy for estimating the risk of pregnancy in women with CHD. Methods In this prospective study, we determined the outcomes of 213 pregnancies in 203 women with CHD. The ZAHARA I (Zwangerschap bij Aangeboren HARtAfwijkingen I) and CARPREG (CARdiac disease in PREGnancy) risk scores were calculated for each pregnancy, as was the total number of cardiovascular (TPc) or offspring risk predictors (TPo) from these and other studies combined. Pregnancies were also classified according to the modified WHO classification of maternal cardiovascular risk and according to disease complexity (DC). Results Maternal cardiovascular events occurred during 22 pregnancies (10.3%). Offspring events occurred during 77 pregnancies in 81 children (37.3%). Cardiovascular and offspring event rates increased with higher risk scores, higher TPc or TPo, higher WHO class and greater DC. The highest area under the curve (AUC) for maternal cardiovascular risk was achieved by the WHO class (AUC: 0.77, p&lt;0.0001). AUC for the ZAHARA I risk score was 0.71 (p=0.001), and for the CARPREG risk score 0.57 (p=0.32). All models performed insufficiently in predicting offspring events (AUC≤0.6). Conclusions The WHO classification is the best available risk assessment model for estimating cardiovascular risk in pregnant women with CHD. None of the offspring prediction models perform adequately in our cohort.</description><subject>Alcohol</subject><subject>Area Under Curve</subject><subject>Cardiac arrhythmia</subject><subject>Cardiovascular disease</subject><subject>Classification</subject><subject>Clinical medicine</subject><subject>Congenital diseases</subject><subject>Decision Support Techniques</subject><subject>Defects</subject><subject>Family medical history</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Fetal Death</subject><subject>Germany</subject><subject>Health risk assessment</subject><subject>Heart Defects, Congenital - complications</subject><subject>Heart Defects, Congenital - diagnosis</subject><subject>Heart Defects, Congenital - mortality</subject><subject>Heart failure</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Infant Mortality</subject><subject>Infant, Newborn</subject><subject>Maternal Mortality</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Predictive Value of Tests</subject><subject>Pregnancy</subject><subject>Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - diagnosis</subject><subject>Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - etiology</subject><subject>Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - mortality</subject><subject>Prognosis</subject><subject>Prospective Studies</subject><subject>Risk Assessment</subject><subject>Risk Factors</subject><subject>ROC Curve</subject><subject>Studies</subject><subject>Womens health</subject><issn>1355-6037</issn><issn>1468-201X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2014</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkcuOFCEYhYnROBd9A2NI3LgphzvU0ky8JZPoQhN3hKJ-emiroIWqnszWJ5eennHhRlcQ-M4J_B9CLyh5QylXF9fgyrJNU8cIFR0nUvb6ETqlQpnD0ffHbc-l7BTh-gSd1bolhIjeqKfohEnChWHsFP36UnLdgV_iHvDeTXF0S8wJuzRiVyvUOkNacA7YuzLGvHfVr5Mrd0AOoe5KTBtcYv2B5zzCVHHIBe8KbJJrwZvc8vgmLtfY57SBFBc34bu34zFWcBWeoSfBTRWe36_n6Nv7d18vP3ZXnz98unx71Q1CiqXrtfCc8zCSwVAYwkAAPHW9HsUArN31XhLpDdVKciaIYs73wEFSEwbve36OXh97dyX_XKEudo7VwzS5BHmtlhpilDac6X-jUjKutFaioa_-Qrd5Lal9xFJtiG4KiGqUOFK-jbsWCLbNbXbl1lJiDzrtg0570GmPOlvs5X35Osww_gk9-GvAxREY5u3_Vf4GveavLg</recordid><startdate>20140901</startdate><enddate>20140901</enddate><creator>Balci, Ali</creator><creator>Sollie-Szarynska, Krystyna M</creator><creator>van der Bijl, Antoinette G L</creator><creator>Ruys, Titia P E</creator><creator>Mulder, Barbara J M</creator><creator>Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W</creator><creator>van Dijk, Arie P J</creator><creator>Wajon, Elly M C J</creator><creator>Vliegen, Hubert W</creator><creator>Drenthen, Willem</creator><creator>Hillege, Hans L</creator><creator>Aarnoudse, Jan G</creator><creator>van Veldhuisen, Dirk J</creator><creator>Pieper, Petronella G</creator><general>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BTHHO</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7QO</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>P64</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20140901</creationdate><title>Prospective validation and assessment of cardiovascular and offspring risk models for pregnant women with congenital heart disease</title><author>Balci, Ali ; Sollie-Szarynska, Krystyna M ; van der Bijl, Antoinette G L ; Ruys, Titia P E ; Mulder, Barbara J M ; Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W ; van Dijk, Arie P J ; Wajon, Elly M C J ; Vliegen, Hubert W ; Drenthen, Willem ; Hillege, Hans L ; Aarnoudse, Jan G ; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J ; Pieper, Petronella G</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-b454t-974c333fd0b81ebfb0eec1a97d4be24c39c505c81765324062ac9e3e518fbcc93</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2014</creationdate><topic>Alcohol</topic><topic>Area Under Curve</topic><topic>Cardiac arrhythmia</topic><topic>Cardiovascular disease</topic><topic>Classification</topic><topic>Clinical medicine</topic><topic>Congenital diseases</topic><topic>Decision Support Techniques</topic><topic>Defects</topic><topic>Family medical history</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Fetal Death</topic><topic>Germany</topic><topic>Health risk assessment</topic><topic>Heart Defects, Congenital - complications</topic><topic>Heart Defects, Congenital - diagnosis</topic><topic>Heart Defects, Congenital - mortality</topic><topic>Heart failure</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Infant Mortality</topic><topic>Infant, Newborn</topic><topic>Maternal Mortality</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Predictive Value of Tests</topic><topic>Pregnancy</topic><topic>Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - diagnosis</topic><topic>Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - etiology</topic><topic>Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - mortality</topic><topic>Prognosis</topic><topic>Prospective Studies</topic><topic>Risk Assessment</topic><topic>Risk Factors</topic><topic>ROC Curve</topic><topic>Studies</topic><topic>Womens health</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Balci, Ali</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sollie-Szarynska, Krystyna M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Bijl, Antoinette G L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ruys, Titia P E</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mulder, Barbara J M</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Dijk, Arie P J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wajon, Elly M C J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Vliegen, Hubert W</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Drenthen, Willem</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Hillege, Hans L</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Aarnoudse, Jan G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Veldhuisen, Dirk J</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pieper, Petronella G</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>ZAHARA-II investigators</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health &amp; 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Therefore we performed a study to identify the optimal assessment strategy for estimating the risk of pregnancy in women with CHD. Methods In this prospective study, we determined the outcomes of 213 pregnancies in 203 women with CHD. The ZAHARA I (Zwangerschap bij Aangeboren HARtAfwijkingen I) and CARPREG (CARdiac disease in PREGnancy) risk scores were calculated for each pregnancy, as was the total number of cardiovascular (TPc) or offspring risk predictors (TPo) from these and other studies combined. Pregnancies were also classified according to the modified WHO classification of maternal cardiovascular risk and according to disease complexity (DC). Results Maternal cardiovascular events occurred during 22 pregnancies (10.3%). Offspring events occurred during 77 pregnancies in 81 children (37.3%). Cardiovascular and offspring event rates increased with higher risk scores, higher TPc or TPo, higher WHO class and greater DC. The highest area under the curve (AUC) for maternal cardiovascular risk was achieved by the WHO class (AUC: 0.77, p&lt;0.0001). AUC for the ZAHARA I risk score was 0.71 (p=0.001), and for the CARPREG risk score 0.57 (p=0.32). All models performed insufficiently in predicting offspring events (AUC≤0.6). Conclusions The WHO classification is the best available risk assessment model for estimating cardiovascular risk in pregnant women with CHD. None of the offspring prediction models perform adequately in our cohort.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</pub><pmid>25034822</pmid><doi>10.1136/heartjnl-2014-305597</doi><tpages>9</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects Alcohol
Area Under Curve
Cardiac arrhythmia
Cardiovascular disease
Classification
Clinical medicine
Congenital diseases
Decision Support Techniques
Defects
Family medical history
Female
Fetal Death
Germany
Health risk assessment
Heart Defects, Congenital - complications
Heart Defects, Congenital - diagnosis
Heart Defects, Congenital - mortality
Heart failure
Humans
Infant Mortality
Infant, Newborn
Maternal Mortality
Mortality
Predictive Value of Tests
Pregnancy
Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - diagnosis
Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - etiology
Pregnancy Complications, Cardiovascular - mortality
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
ROC Curve
Studies
Womens health
title Prospective validation and assessment of cardiovascular and offspring risk models for pregnant women with congenital heart disease
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