A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones
During extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TC) reduced predictability for the midlatitude flow is often observed. In this study we assess the sensitivity of the midlatitude flow response to ET. To this end, a simple novel metric, the “equivalent forecast hour difference,” is introduc...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2015-11, Vol.42 (21), p.9521-9529 |
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| container_issue | 21 |
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| container_title | Geophysical research letters |
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| creator | Grams, Christian M. Lang, Simon T. K. Keller, Julia H. |
| description | During extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TC) reduced predictability for the midlatitude flow is often observed. In this study we assess the sensitivity of the midlatitude flow response to ET. To this end, a simple novel metric, the “equivalent forecast hour difference,” is introduced and applied to experimental simulations for eight recent ET events, in which the TC has been removed or relocated. Early during ET, the midlatitude flow response is sensitive to ridgebuilding directly downstream of the transitioning TC. In cases with strong ridgebuilding and Rossby wave triggering, the sensitivity remains high. The midlatitude flow response is even more sensitive to error in the initial position of the TC. This study newly quantifies the high degree of sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to ET. It corroborates the need for correct tropical cyclogenesis and TC track forecasts for improving midlatitude numerical weather prediction during ET.
Key Points
Midlatitude flow response highly sensitive to the presence of ET and to TC track error
Sensitivity is due to direct TC‐midlatitude flow interaction and later due to downstream development
Poorly represented ET in NWP has high potential to degrade midlatitude forecast skill |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/2015GL065764 |
| format | Article |
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Key Points
Midlatitude flow response highly sensitive to the presence of ET and to TC track error
Sensitivity is due to direct TC‐midlatitude flow interaction and later due to downstream development
Poorly represented ET in NWP has high potential to degrade midlatitude forecast skill</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065764</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Assessments ; Climatology ; Computer simulation ; Cyclogenesis ; Cyclones ; Equivalence ; Error analysis ; Error correction ; Error detection ; Flow ; forecast skill ; Hurricane Sandy ; Hurricanes ; Meteorology ; numerical weather prediction ; Planetary waves ; predictability ; Rossby waves ; Sensitivity analysis ; Tracking ; Tropical climate ; Tropical cyclogenesis ; tropical cyclone ; Tropical cyclones ; Weather ; Weather forecasting</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2015-11, Vol.42 (21), p.9521-9529</ispartof><rights>2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5462-eb1abcc1a0e1d1de6a21dd57fa80320333600b134c6b1e371be37031ca600e663</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5462-eb1abcc1a0e1d1de6a21dd57fa80320333600b134c6b1e371be37031ca600e663</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002%2F2015GL065764$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002%2F2015GL065764$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,777,781,1412,1428,11495,27905,27906,45555,45556,46390,46449,46814,46873</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Grams, Christian M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lang, Simon T. K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Keller, Julia H.</creatorcontrib><title>A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><addtitle>Geophys. Res. Lett</addtitle><description>During extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TC) reduced predictability for the midlatitude flow is often observed. In this study we assess the sensitivity of the midlatitude flow response to ET. To this end, a simple novel metric, the “equivalent forecast hour difference,” is introduced and applied to experimental simulations for eight recent ET events, in which the TC has been removed or relocated. Early during ET, the midlatitude flow response is sensitive to ridgebuilding directly downstream of the transitioning TC. In cases with strong ridgebuilding and Rossby wave triggering, the sensitivity remains high. The midlatitude flow response is even more sensitive to error in the initial position of the TC. This study newly quantifies the high degree of sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to ET. It corroborates the need for correct tropical cyclogenesis and TC track forecasts for improving midlatitude numerical weather prediction during ET.
Key Points
Midlatitude flow response highly sensitive to the presence of ET and to TC track error
Sensitivity is due to direct TC‐midlatitude flow interaction and later due to downstream development
Poorly represented ET in NWP has high potential to degrade midlatitude forecast skill</description><subject>Assessments</subject><subject>Climatology</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Cyclogenesis</subject><subject>Cyclones</subject><subject>Equivalence</subject><subject>Error analysis</subject><subject>Error correction</subject><subject>Error detection</subject><subject>Flow</subject><subject>forecast skill</subject><subject>Hurricane Sandy</subject><subject>Hurricanes</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>numerical weather prediction</subject><subject>Planetary waves</subject><subject>predictability</subject><subject>Rossby waves</subject><subject>Sensitivity analysis</subject><subject>Tracking</subject><subject>Tropical climate</subject><subject>Tropical cyclogenesis</subject><subject>tropical cyclone</subject><subject>Tropical cyclones</subject><subject>Weather</subject><subject>Weather forecasting</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFkcGKFDEQhoMoOI7efICAFw-2VpJO0n1cFm2FQUEUYS8hna7GrN2d2STt7DyCb23ccUU8rDkkxZ_v_6GqCHnK4CUD4K84MNntQEmt6ntkw9q6rhoAfZ9sANpSc60ekkcpXQKAAME25McZvVrtkn222X9HalPClGZcMg0jzV-RJlySL38-H2-lIRyWlCPamc5-mIozrwPScQoHGjHtw5KQ5kDxOkebY9h7Zyda6puksNzk3Mru6KawYHpMHox2Svjk97sln9-8_nT-ttp96N6dn-0qJ2vFK-yZ7Z1jFpANbEBlORsGqUfbgOAghFAAPRO1Uz1DoVlfrtKqs0VHpcSWPD_l7mO4WjFlM_vkcJrsgmFNhpWJ1Y2Usvk_qrUqp21kQZ_9g16GNS6lEcNaBo0Wor6b0lJx3srSwJa8OFEuhpQijmYf_Wzj0TAwvxZt_l50wfkJP_gJj3eypvu4k0I2vJiqk8mnjNd_TDZ-M0oLLc2X953RWnb8orkwjfgJghy5tg</recordid><startdate>20151116</startdate><enddate>20151116</enddate><creator>Grams, Christian M.</creator><creator>Lang, Simon T. K.</creator><creator>Keller, Julia H.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>John Wiley & Sons, Inc</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L7M</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>C1K</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20151116</creationdate><title>A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones</title><author>Grams, Christian M. ; Lang, Simon T. K. ; Keller, Julia H.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c5462-eb1abcc1a0e1d1de6a21dd57fa80320333600b134c6b1e371be37031ca600e663</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>Assessments</topic><topic>Climatology</topic><topic>Computer simulation</topic><topic>Cyclogenesis</topic><topic>Cyclones</topic><topic>Equivalence</topic><topic>Error analysis</topic><topic>Error correction</topic><topic>Error detection</topic><topic>Flow</topic><topic>forecast skill</topic><topic>Hurricane Sandy</topic><topic>Hurricanes</topic><topic>Meteorology</topic><topic>numerical weather prediction</topic><topic>Planetary waves</topic><topic>predictability</topic><topic>Rossby waves</topic><topic>Sensitivity analysis</topic><topic>Tracking</topic><topic>Tropical climate</topic><topic>Tropical cyclogenesis</topic><topic>tropical cyclone</topic><topic>Tropical cyclones</topic><topic>Weather</topic><topic>Weather forecasting</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Grams, Christian M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lang, Simon T. K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Keller, Julia H.</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Grams, Christian M.</au><au>Lang, Simon T. K.</au><au>Keller, Julia H.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><addtitle>Geophys. Res. Lett</addtitle><date>2015-11-16</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>42</volume><issue>21</issue><spage>9521</spage><epage>9529</epage><pages>9521-9529</pages><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><abstract>During extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TC) reduced predictability for the midlatitude flow is often observed. In this study we assess the sensitivity of the midlatitude flow response to ET. To this end, a simple novel metric, the “equivalent forecast hour difference,” is introduced and applied to experimental simulations for eight recent ET events, in which the TC has been removed or relocated. Early during ET, the midlatitude flow response is sensitive to ridgebuilding directly downstream of the transitioning TC. In cases with strong ridgebuilding and Rossby wave triggering, the sensitivity remains high. The midlatitude flow response is even more sensitive to error in the initial position of the TC. This study newly quantifies the high degree of sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to ET. It corroborates the need for correct tropical cyclogenesis and TC track forecasts for improving midlatitude numerical weather prediction during ET.
Key Points
Midlatitude flow response highly sensitive to the presence of ET and to TC track error
Sensitivity is due to direct TC‐midlatitude flow interaction and later due to downstream development
Poorly represented ET in NWP has high potential to degrade midlatitude forecast skill</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</pub><doi>10.1002/2015GL065764</doi><tpages>9</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Assessments Climatology Computer simulation Cyclogenesis Cyclones Equivalence Error analysis Error correction Error detection Flow forecast skill Hurricane Sandy Hurricanes Meteorology numerical weather prediction Planetary waves predictability Rossby waves Sensitivity analysis Tracking Tropical climate Tropical cyclogenesis tropical cyclone Tropical cyclones Weather Weather forecasting |
| title | A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones |
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