Will a rising sea sink some estuarine wetland ecosystems?

Sea-level rise associated with climate change presents a major challenge to plant diversity and ecosystem service provision in coastal wetlands. In this study, we investigate the effect of sea-level rise on benthos, vegetation, and ecosystem diversity in a tidal wetland in west Wales, the UK. Present relationships between plant communities and environmental variables were investigated through 50 plots at which vegetation (species and coverage), hydrological (surface or groundwater depth, conductivity) and soil (matrix chroma, presence or absence of mottles, organic content, particle size) data were collected. Benthic communities were sampled at intervals along a continuum from saline to freshwater. To ascertain future changes to the wetlands' hydrology, a GIS-based empirical model was developed. Using a LiDAR derived land surface, the relative effect of peat accumulation and rising sea levels were modelled over 200years to determine how frequently portions of the wetland will be inundated by mean sea level, mean high water spring and mean high water neap conditions. The model takes into account changing extents of peat accumulation as hydrological conditions alter. Model results show that changes to the wetland hydrology will initially be slow. However, changes in frequency and extent of inundation reach a tipping point 125 to 175years from 2010 due to the extremely low slope of the wetland. From then onwards, large portions of the wetland become flooded at every flood tide and saltwater intrusion becomes more common. This will result in a reduction in marsh biodiversity with plant communities switching toward less diverse and occasionally monospecific communities that are more salt tolerant. While the loss of tidal freshwater wetland is in line with global predictions, simulations suggest that in the Teifi marshes the loss will be slow at first, but then rapid. While there will be a decrease in biodiversity, the model indicated that at least for one ecosystem service, carbon storage, there is potential for an increase in the near future. [Display omitted] •We investigate the effect of sea level rise on a tidal wetland ecosystem.•Wetland sedimentation processes are modelled against the effect of sea level rise.•Model shows that in 175years, the wetland is inundated at every flood tide.•Increased salinity and inundation are associated with decline in species diversity.•In short term, sea level rise is associated with increased carbon storage.