More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States
This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natur...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Population and development review 2015-12, Vol.41 (4), p.651-680 |
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| container_title | Population and development review |
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| creator | Johnson, Kenneth M. Field, Layton M. Poston Jr, Dudley L. |
| description | This article examines the prevalence and dynamics of natural decrease in the subnational populations of Europe and the United States. Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas ("counties") compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, child-women ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. Our spatial regression models reflect remarkable consistency in the influence of each of these variables in Europe and in the US, demonstrating the similarity in the demographic processes that produce natural decrease. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00089.x |
| format | Article |
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Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas ("counties") compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, child-women ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. 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Natural decrease results from interactions between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. We document the greater incidence and degree of natural decrease in Europe. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, natural decrease occurred in 58 percent of European NUTS 3 areas ("counties") compared to only 28 percent of the US counties. Three critical demographic variables (proportion over 65, child-women ratio, and proportion of women of childbearing age) each exert a significant and distinct impact on the likelihood of natural decrease. Our spatial regression models reflect remarkable consistency in the influence of each of these variables in Europe and in the US, demonstrating the similarity in the demographic processes that produce natural decrease.</description><subject>21st century</subject><subject>Age</subject><subject>Age structure</subject><subject>Births</subject><subject>Censuses</subject><subject>Child mortality</subject><subject>Childbearing</subject><subject>Childbearing age</subject><subject>Childbirth & labor</subject><subject>Children</subject><subject>Comparative analysis</subject><subject>Demographic variables</subject><subject>Demographics</subject><subject>Demography</subject><subject>Females</subject><subject>Fertility</subject><subject>Fertility rates</subject><subject>Migration</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Mortality rates</subject><subject>Mothers</subject><subject>Nuts</subject><subject>Older adults</subject><subject>Population</subject><subject>Population dynamics</subject><subject>Population growth</subject><subject>Proportions</subject><subject>Ratios</subject><subject>Regression analysis</subject><subject>Regression models</subject><subject>Sociodemographics</subject><subject>Spatial analysis</subject><subject>Spatial discrimination</subject><subject>Women</subject><issn>0098-7921</issn><issn>1728-4457</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>7QJ</sourceid><sourceid>BHHNA</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkM2O0zAUhS0EEmXgEZAssWGT4J_4D7EZ2qEgygCdViwtx3HUhEzSsR1N5-3HIagLVnhzLZ3vu9I9AECMcpzeuzbHgsisKJjICcIsRwhJlZ-egMU5eAoWCCmZCUXwc_AihDZBWHC-APtvg3dw5Uw8BLg7mB5-bHz6v4c3Y9mb2Ay96eC1iaNPc-WsdyY42PTwavTD0UHTVzAeHNz3TXQVvIkmuvASPKtNF9yrv_MC7D9d7Zafs8339Zfl5SazhRIqqwpiLSmxLSQxSnBsaFla4iw3TFZUVIoLVltiTW1oxdJ5BeUlxaKWTjLD6AV4O-89-uFudCHq2yZY13Wmd8MYNBYSMUQl5gl98w_aDqNPx01UIQXBSOFEyZmyfgjBu1offXNr_IPGSE9961ZPteqpVj31rf_0rU9J_TCr903nHv7b0z8uV1upkv561tsQB3_WScGpZGLKszlvQnSnc278b80FFUz_ul7r9Xa3-bpdL_VP-gjm753I</recordid><startdate>201512</startdate><enddate>201512</enddate><creator>Johnson, Kenneth M.</creator><creator>Field, Layton M.</creator><creator>Poston Jr, Dudley L.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>Wiley Subscription Services, Inc</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7QJ</scope><scope>7U4</scope><scope>8BJ</scope><scope>BHHNA</scope><scope>DWI</scope><scope>FQK</scope><scope>JBE</scope><scope>WZK</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7U6</scope><scope>C1K</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201512</creationdate><title>More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States</title><author>Johnson, Kenneth M. ; 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| source | Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts (ASSIA); Jstor Complete Legacy; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Sociological Abstracts |
| subjects | 21st century Age Age structure Births Censuses Child mortality Childbearing Childbearing age Childbirth & labor Children Comparative analysis Demographic variables Demographics Demography Females Fertility Fertility rates Migration Mortality Mortality rates Mothers Nuts Older adults Population Population dynamics Population growth Proportions Ratios Regression analysis Regression models Sociodemographics Spatial analysis Spatial discrimination Women |
| title | More Deaths Than Births: Subnational Natural Decrease in Europe and the United States |
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