Surface modeling of ecosystem responses to climatic change in Poyang Lake Basin of China

•MAT became 0.41°C higher and MAP increased by 116mm.•CTWF contracted in area from 1092.65km2 in P1 to 12.87km2 in P2. STWF expanded from 0.56km2 to 11.87km2.•The proportion of WTMF decreased from 30.81% in P1 to 16.84% in P2, while STMF increased from 64.79% in P1 to 76.73% in P2.•The mean centers of the dominant HLZ types were relatively stable, while the ones of the rare HLZ types had a considerable shift. Surfaces of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation during the period from 1951 to 2010 in Jiang-Xi province (Poyang Lake Basin) of China are simulated by means of a method for high accuracy surface modeling (HASM), using data from 106 weather observation stations scattered over and around Poyang Lake Basin. Methodologically, we analyzed errors of HASM by comparing with classical methods. The analysis indicated that HASM has a much higher accuracy than the classical methods. The simulation results from HASM show that mean annual temperature was respectively 17.05°C and 17.46°C in the periods from 1951 to 1980 (P1) and from 1981 to 2010 (P2). Mean annual precipitation was 1602mm and 1718mm, respectively in the P1 and P2. In other words, climate has become warmer and wetter in recent 60 years in general. The ecosystems are very sensitive to relatively small changes in surface meteorology. Warm temperate moist forest and subtropical moist forest were the dominant HLZ types, accounted for 94.99% of total area of Jiang-Xi province. The proportion of warm temperate moist forest decreased from 30.81% to 16.84%, while subtropical moist forest increased from 64.79% to 76.73%. The mean centers of the rare HLZ types, cool temperate wet forest, cool temperate rain forest and subtropical wet forest, moved respectively 291km, 104km and 122km. Warm temperate wet forest and subtropical moist forest had a little shift, moved respectively 21km and 17km during the period from P1 to P2.