Prospective air pollutant emissions inventory for the development and production of unconventional natural gas in the Karoo basin, South Africa

The increased use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques to produce gas from unconventional deposits has led to concerns about the impacts to local and regional air quality. South Africa has the 8th largest technically recoverable shale gas reserve in the world and is in the early stages of exploration of this resource. This paper presents a prospective air pollutant emissions inventory for the development and production of unconventional natural gas in South Africa's Karoo basin. A bottom-up Monte Carlo assessment of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5), and non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions was conducted for major categories of well development and production activities. NOx emissions are estimated to be 68 tons per day (±42; standard deviation), total NMVOC emissions are 39 tons per day (±28), and PM2.5 emissions are 3.0 tons per day (±1.9). NOx and NMVOC emissions from shale gas development and production would dominate all other regional emission sources, and could be significant contributors to regional ozone and local air quality, especially considering the current lack of industrial activity in the region. Emissions of PM2.5 will contribute to local air quality, and are of a similar magnitude as typical vehicle and industrial emissions from a large South African city. This emissions inventory provides the information necessary for regulatory authorities to evaluate emissions reduction opportunities using existing technologies and to implement appropriate monitoring of shale gas-related activities. •Prospective emissions inventory for unconventional natural gas in South Africa.•Monte Carlo assessment of process-level and activity-level emissions estimates.•Shale gas development and production would dominate regional sources of NOx and NMVOC.