Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us
It has been 40 years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | The Journal of economic perspectives 2016-01, Vol.30 (1), p.139-160 |
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| container_title | The Journal of economic perspectives |
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| creator | Baumeister, Christiane Kilian, Lutz |
| description | It has been 40 years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing on this literature, we first provide an overview of the causes of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014. We then discuss why oil price fluctuations remain difficult to predict, despite economists' improved understanding of oil markets. Unexpected oil price fluctuations are commonly referred to as oil price shocks. We document that, in practice, consumers, policymakers, financial market participants, and economists may have different oil price expectations, and that, what may be surprising to some, need not be equally surprising to others. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1257/jep.30.1.139 |
| format | Article |
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| source | Jstor Complete Legacy; EZB-FREE-00999 freely available EZB journals; American Economic Association Web; EBSCOhost Business Source Complete |
| subjects | Business cycles Causality Consumer Price Index Crude oil Crude oil prices Economic crisis Economic expectations Economic fluctuations Economic history Economic policy Economists Energy economics Financial markets Fuel oil prices Gasoline Global economy Inventory Market prices Oil Oil price Oil price shocks Oil prices Oil production Petroleum production Price fixing Price fluctuations Price increases Price level changes Pricing policies Regulation of financial institutions Service stations Studies Supply Supply & demand Symposium: Oil and Gas Markets Volatility |
| title | Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us |
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