Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China
The method of surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, t...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Environmental earth sciences 2015-10, Vol.74 (8), p.6407-6420 |
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| creator | Fan, Zemeng Li, Jing Yue, Tianxiang Zhou, Xun Lan, Anjun |
| description | The method of surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of China in 2010, the land cover scenarios of southwestern China were respectively simulated. The average total accuracy and Kappa index of SMLCS are 90.25 and 87.96 %, respectively. The results show that there would be a very apparent similar variety on the spatial distribution pattern of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China under all the three scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2100, but there would have the different change rate. In general, the change rate of land cover type under RCP85 scenario would be the fastest, then under RCP45 scenario, and under RCP26 would be the slowest. From 2010 to 2100, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, nival area, and desert and bare rock would have a gradual decrease trend, while evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction built-up land, and water bodies body would gradually increase in karst areas of southwestern China, in which wetland would have the fastest increase rate (5.28 % per decade on average), and desert and bare rock would decrease with the fastest rate (2.34 % per decade on average). |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s12665-015-4223-z |
| format | Article |
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On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of China in 2010, the land cover scenarios of southwestern China were respectively simulated. The average total accuracy and Kappa index of SMLCS are 90.25 and 87.96 %, respectively. The results show that there would be a very apparent similar variety on the spatial distribution pattern of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China under all the three scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2100, but there would have the different change rate. In general, the change rate of land cover type under RCP85 scenario would be the fastest, then under RCP45 scenario, and under RCP26 would be the slowest. From 2010 to 2100, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, nival area, and desert and bare rock would have a gradual decrease trend, while evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction built-up land, and water bodies body would gradually increase in karst areas of southwestern China, in which wetland would have the fastest increase rate (5.28 % per decade on average), and desert and bare rock would decrease with the fastest rate (2.34 % per decade on average).</description><identifier>ISSN: 1866-6280</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1866-6299</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s12665-015-4223-z</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg</publisher><subject>Agricultural land ; Biogeosciences ; broadleaved evergreen forests ; Climate change ; Climatic data ; Coniferous forests ; cropland ; Deciduous forests ; Deciduous trees ; Deserts ; Distribution patterns ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Environmental Science and Engineering ; Forests ; Geochemistry ; Geology ; Grasslands ; Hydrology/Water Resources ; Karst ; karsts ; land cover ; Mixed forests ; Rocks ; shrublands ; Simulation ; Spatial distribution ; surface water ; Terrestrial Pollution ; Thematic Issue ; weather stations ; Wetlands</subject><ispartof>Environmental earth sciences, 2015-10, Vol.74 (8), p.6407-6420</ispartof><rights>Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a466t-23cd8e9afe2a0ca9f10bccdc8e1e10efb490339749a105479ef54a58aa5e5f6a3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a466t-23cd8e9afe2a0ca9f10bccdc8e1e10efb490339749a105479ef54a58aa5e5f6a3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12665-015-4223-z$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12665-015-4223-z$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27923,27924,41487,42556,51318</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Fan, Zemeng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Jing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yue, Tianxiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhou, Xun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lan, Anjun</creatorcontrib><title>Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China</title><title>Environmental earth sciences</title><addtitle>Environ Earth Sci</addtitle><description>The method of surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of China in 2010, the land cover scenarios of southwestern China were respectively simulated. The average total accuracy and Kappa index of SMLCS are 90.25 and 87.96 %, respectively. The results show that there would be a very apparent similar variety on the spatial distribution pattern of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China under all the three scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2100, but there would have the different change rate. In general, the change rate of land cover type under RCP85 scenario would be the fastest, then under RCP45 scenario, and under RCP26 would be the slowest. From 2010 to 2100, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, nival area, and desert and bare rock would have a gradual decrease trend, while evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction built-up land, and water bodies body would gradually increase in karst areas of southwestern China, in which wetland would have the fastest increase rate (5.28 % per decade on average), and desert and bare rock would decrease with the fastest rate (2.34 % per decade on average).</description><subject>Agricultural land</subject><subject>Biogeosciences</subject><subject>broadleaved evergreen forests</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climatic data</subject><subject>Coniferous forests</subject><subject>cropland</subject><subject>Deciduous forests</subject><subject>Deciduous trees</subject><subject>Deserts</subject><subject>Distribution patterns</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Environmental Science and Engineering</subject><subject>Forests</subject><subject>Geochemistry</subject><subject>Geology</subject><subject>Grasslands</subject><subject>Hydrology/Water Resources</subject><subject>Karst</subject><subject>karsts</subject><subject>land cover</subject><subject>Mixed forests</subject><subject>Rocks</subject><subject>shrublands</subject><subject>Simulation</subject><subject>Spatial distribution</subject><subject>surface water</subject><subject>Terrestrial Pollution</subject><subject>Thematic Issue</subject><subject>weather stations</subject><subject>Wetlands</subject><issn>1866-6280</issn><issn>1866-6299</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2015</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kE1LAzEQhoMoWLQ_wJMLXrys5mM3m-BJil9Y8FB7DtN00m5pNzXZVeyvN2VFxINzmYF53uGdl5AzRq8YpdV1ZFzKMqeszAvORb47IAOmpMwl1_rwZ1b0mAxjXNFUgglN5YDcTCw2EGofM--yNTTzzPp3DFndZM8QYptBQNjvJr5rlx8YWwxNNlrWDZySIwfriMPvfkKm93evo8d8_PLwNLod51BI2eZc2LlCDQ45UAvaMTqzdm4VMmQU3azQVAhdFRoYLYtKoysLKBVAiaWTIE7IZX93G_xblxyYTR0trpNb9F00rBJcpYeKKqEXf9CV70KT3CWq4kKogqpEsZ6ywccY0JltqDcQPg2jZp-o6RM1KVGzT9Tskob3mpjYZoHh1-V_ROe9yIE3sAh1NNMJTwClnAnJtPgCo4qBBA</recordid><startdate>20151001</startdate><enddate>20151001</enddate><creator>Fan, Zemeng</creator><creator>Li, Jing</creator><creator>Yue, Tianxiang</creator><creator>Zhou, Xun</creator><creator>Lan, Anjun</creator><general>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>FBQ</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>H96</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>SOI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20151001</creationdate><title>Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China</title><author>Fan, Zemeng ; Li, Jing ; Yue, Tianxiang ; Zhou, Xun ; Lan, Anjun</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a466t-23cd8e9afe2a0ca9f10bccdc8e1e10efb490339749a105479ef54a58aa5e5f6a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2015</creationdate><topic>Agricultural land</topic><topic>Biogeosciences</topic><topic>broadleaved evergreen forests</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climatic data</topic><topic>Coniferous forests</topic><topic>cropland</topic><topic>Deciduous forests</topic><topic>Deciduous trees</topic><topic>Deserts</topic><topic>Distribution patterns</topic><topic>Earth and Environmental Science</topic><topic>Earth Sciences</topic><topic>Environmental Science and Engineering</topic><topic>Forests</topic><topic>Geochemistry</topic><topic>Geology</topic><topic>Grasslands</topic><topic>Hydrology/Water Resources</topic><topic>Karst</topic><topic>karsts</topic><topic>land cover</topic><topic>Mixed forests</topic><topic>Rocks</topic><topic>shrublands</topic><topic>Simulation</topic><topic>Spatial distribution</topic><topic>surface water</topic><topic>Terrestrial Pollution</topic><topic>Thematic Issue</topic><topic>weather stations</topic><topic>Wetlands</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Fan, Zemeng</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Li, Jing</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Yue, Tianxiang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhou, Xun</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lan, Anjun</creatorcontrib><collection>AGRIS</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>Environmental Science Database</collection><collection>Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>Environmental Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Environmental earth sciences</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Fan, Zemeng</au><au>Li, Jing</au><au>Yue, Tianxiang</au><au>Zhou, Xun</au><au>Lan, Anjun</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China</atitle><jtitle>Environmental earth sciences</jtitle><stitle>Environ Earth Sci</stitle><date>2015-10-01</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>74</volume><issue>8</issue><spage>6407</spage><epage>6420</epage><pages>6407-6420</pages><issn>1866-6280</issn><eissn>1866-6299</eissn><abstract>The method of surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of China in 2010, the land cover scenarios of southwestern China were respectively simulated. The average total accuracy and Kappa index of SMLCS are 90.25 and 87.96 %, respectively. The results show that there would be a very apparent similar variety on the spatial distribution pattern of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China under all the three scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2100, but there would have the different change rate. In general, the change rate of land cover type under RCP85 scenario would be the fastest, then under RCP45 scenario, and under RCP26 would be the slowest. From 2010 to 2100, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, nival area, and desert and bare rock would have a gradual decrease trend, while evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction built-up land, and water bodies body would gradually increase in karst areas of southwestern China, in which wetland would have the fastest increase rate (5.28 % per decade on average), and desert and bare rock would decrease with the fastest rate (2.34 % per decade on average).</abstract><cop>Berlin/Heidelberg</cop><pub>Springer Berlin Heidelberg</pub><doi>10.1007/s12665-015-4223-z</doi><tpages>14</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Agricultural land Biogeosciences broadleaved evergreen forests Climate change Climatic data Coniferous forests cropland Deciduous forests Deciduous trees Deserts Distribution patterns Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Environmental Science and Engineering Forests Geochemistry Geology Grasslands Hydrology/Water Resources Karst karsts land cover Mixed forests Rocks shrublands Simulation Spatial distribution surface water Terrestrial Pollution Thematic Issue weather stations Wetlands |
| title | Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China |
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