The effect of concurrent sea‐surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic on Caribbean rainfall

Singular value decomposition (SVD) techniques are used to deduce a relationship between rainfall over the Caribbean basin and oppositely signed sea‐surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic. The analysis is done for four 3 month seasons. The first two seasons: November–January (NDJ) and February–April (FMA) encompass the Caribbean dry period, and the other two, May–July (MJJ) and August–October (ASO), include the early and late Caribbean rainy seasons. The first SVD mode for all seasons represents variability due to El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) and, with the exception of the later wet season, the second SVD mode represents variability due to tropical North Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures. ENSO has the greatest impact during the late rainfall season (ASO) and the early dry season (NDJ), whereas the tropical Atlantic controls variability in the early rainfall season (MJJ). The configuration of concurrent but oppositely signed sea‐surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins is only associated with rainfall modification in the late Caribbean rainfall season (ASO) and the early Caribbean dry season (NDJ). Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society