Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States
Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth's biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with cur...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Ecological monographs 1998-11, Vol.68 (4), p.465-485 |
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| creator | Iverson, Louis R. Prasad, Anantha M. |
| description | Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth's biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information systems (GIS) in conjunction with regression tree analysis (RTA). The method was then extended to better understand the potential of species to survive and/or migrate under a changed climate. We collected, summarized, and analyzed data for climate, soils, land use, elevation, and species assemblages for >2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data for >100 000 forested plots in the East provided the tree species range and abundance information for the trees. RTA was used to devise prediction rules from current species-environment relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution as well as predict the future potential distributions under two scenarios of climate change with twofold increases in the level of atmospheric CO2. Validation measures prove the utility of the RTA modeling approach for mapping current tree importance values across large areas, leading to increased confidence in the predictions of potential future species distributions. With our analysis of potential effects, we show that roughly 30 species could expand their range and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an additional 30 species could decrease by at least 10%, following equilibrium after a changed climate. Depending on the global change scenario used, 4-9 species would potentially move out of the United States to the north. Nearly half of the species assessed (36 out of 80) showed the potential for the ecological optima to shift at least 100 km to the north, including seven that could move >250 km. Given these potential future distributions, actual species redistributions will be controlled by migration rates possible through fragmented landscapes. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1890/0012-9615(1998)068[0465:PAOTSF]2.0.CO;2 |
| format | Article |
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We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information systems (GIS) in conjunction with regression tree analysis (RTA). The method was then extended to better understand the potential of species to survive and/or migrate under a changed climate. We collected, summarized, and analyzed data for climate, soils, land use, elevation, and species assemblages for >2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data for >100 000 forested plots in the East provided the tree species range and abundance information for the trees. RTA was used to devise prediction rules from current species-environment relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution as well as predict the future potential distributions under two scenarios of climate change with twofold increases in the level of atmospheric CO2. Validation measures prove the utility of the RTA modeling approach for mapping current tree importance values across large areas, leading to increased confidence in the predictions of potential future species distributions. With our analysis of potential effects, we show that roughly 30 species could expand their range and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an additional 30 species could decrease by at least 10%, following equilibrium after a changed climate. Depending on the global change scenario used, 4-9 species would potentially move out of the United States to the north. Nearly half of the species assessed (36 out of 80) showed the potential for the ecological optima to shift at least 100 km to the north, including seven that could move >250 km. 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Psychology ; Geographic information systems ; geographic information systems (GIS) ; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION ; global change ; GLOBAL WARMING ; landscape ecology ; MODELE DE SIMULATION ; Modeling ; MODELOS DE SIMULACION ; predictive vegetation mapping ; regression tree analysis (RTA) ; SIMULATION MODELS ; Species ; species–environment relationships ; Terrestrial environment, soil, air ; tree species distribution ; tree species migration ; tree species ranges ; Trees ; USA ; Vegetation ; Vegetation mapping</subject><ispartof>Ecological monographs, 1998-11, Vol.68 (4), p.465-485</ispartof><rights>Copyright 1998 Ecological Society of America</rights><rights>1998 by the Ecological Society of America</rights><rights>1999 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>COPYRIGHT 1998 Ecological Society of America</rights><rights>Copyright Ecological Society of America Nov 1998</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c6035-b77cba7a9da7de4a31fff0182f440ae7446de8d5ac6a7611fa49ccaedf1bb053</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c6035-b77cba7a9da7de4a31fff0182f440ae7446de8d5ac6a7611fa49ccaedf1bb053</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2657150$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/2657150$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,1411,27848,27903,27904,45553,45554,57995,58228</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=1637268$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Iverson, Louis R.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Prasad, Anantha M.</creatorcontrib><title>Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States</title><title>Ecological monographs</title><description>Projected climate warming will potentially have profound effects on the earth's biota, including a large redistribution of tree species. We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information systems (GIS) in conjunction with regression tree analysis (RTA). The method was then extended to better understand the potential of species to survive and/or migrate under a changed climate. We collected, summarized, and analyzed data for climate, soils, land use, elevation, and species assemblages for >2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data for >100 000 forested plots in the East provided the tree species range and abundance information for the trees. RTA was used to devise prediction rules from current species-environment relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution as well as predict the future potential distributions under two scenarios of climate change with twofold increases in the level of atmospheric CO2. Validation measures prove the utility of the RTA modeling approach for mapping current tree importance values across large areas, leading to increased confidence in the predictions of potential future species distributions. With our analysis of potential effects, we show that roughly 30 species could expand their range and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an additional 30 species could decrease by at least 10%, following equilibrium after a changed climate. Depending on the global change scenario used, 4-9 species would potentially move out of the United States to the north. Nearly half of the species assessed (36 out of 80) showed the potential for the ecological optima to shift at least 100 km to the north, including seven that could move >250 km. Given these potential future distributions, actual species redistributions will be controlled by migration rates possible through fragmented landscapes.</description><subject>Animal, plant and microbial ecology</subject><subject>Applied ecology</subject><subject>ARBOLES FORESTALES</subject><subject>ARBRE FORESTIER</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Biological diversity</subject><subject>CAMBIO CLIMATICO</subject><subject>CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>CLIMATIC CHANGE</subject><subject>Climatic changes</subject><subject>DISTRIBUCION GEOGRAFICA</subject><subject>DISTRIBUTION GEOGRAPHIQUE</subject><subject>Ecological modeling</subject><subject>Ecotoxicology, biological effects of pollution</subject><subject>envelope analysis</subject><subject>Environmental aspects</subject><subject>ETATS UNIS</subject><subject>EUA</subject><subject>Forest ecology</subject><subject>forest inventory</subject><subject>Forest service</subject><subject>Forest soils</subject><subject>FOREST TREES</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>Geographic information systems</subject><subject>geographic information systems (GIS)</subject><subject>GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION</subject><subject>global change</subject><subject>GLOBAL WARMING</subject><subject>landscape ecology</subject><subject>MODELE DE SIMULATION</subject><subject>Modeling</subject><subject>MODELOS DE SIMULACION</subject><subject>predictive vegetation mapping</subject><subject>regression tree analysis (RTA)</subject><subject>SIMULATION MODELS</subject><subject>Species</subject><subject>species–environment relationships</subject><subject>Terrestrial environment, soil, air</subject><subject>tree species distribution</subject><subject>tree species migration</subject><subject>tree species ranges</subject><subject>Trees</subject><subject>USA</subject><subject>Vegetation</subject><subject>Vegetation mapping</subject><issn>0012-9615</issn><issn>1557-7015</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1998</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>K30</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNqdkl1rFDEUhgdRcF39CUJQEQVnm4_Jx9SrZdhWobLF3V5JCdnMyXaW2cyazFL6780wxYrUG8lFSHjynvfkPVl2QvCMqBKfYExoXgrCP5CyVB-xUD9wIfjp5Xy5Xp1d0xmeVcvP9Ek2IZzLXGLCn2aT36-eZy9i3OHhXJaT7PoyQN3YvvFbZDZHXxtvAXUOKYz6AIDiAWwDEbmubbvbAbNtszc9IHtj_BZQ41F_A2hhYg_Boyvf9FCjVZ-Q-DJ75kwb4dX9Ps3WZ4t19SW_WJ5_reYXuRWY8Xwjpd0YacrayBoKw4hzDhNFXVFgA7IoRA2q5sYKIwUhzhSltQZqRzYbzNk0ez_KHkL38wix1_smWmhb46E7Rk0kKSgpBvDNX-CuOwafrGnKGCkIpiRBb_8FEcVKlX6cD1KfRmprWtCNd10fjN2Ch2DazoNr0vWcM6oEVyzh-SN4WjXsG_sYfz7yNnQxBnD6ENK3hztNsB7mQA8J6iFRPcyBTq70MAd6nANNNdbVMrU1zd7dt2OiNa0LKeEmPsgJJqlQCfs-YrfJyN3_VtOL6tsACJUy4w-1d7Hvwp-ilGGpqeCScJyw1yPmTKfNNiR7V6skI3FJKKPsF2ok4NQ</recordid><startdate>199811</startdate><enddate>199811</enddate><creator>Iverson, Louis R.</creator><creator>Prasad, Anantha M.</creator><general>Ecological Society of America</general><general>Duke University Press</general><scope>FBQ</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>HFXKP</scope><scope>IZSXY</scope><scope>K30</scope><scope>PAAUG</scope><scope>PAWHS</scope><scope>PAWZZ</scope><scope>PAXOH</scope><scope>PBHAV</scope><scope>PBQSW</scope><scope>PBYQZ</scope><scope>PCIWU</scope><scope>PCMID</scope><scope>PCZJX</scope><scope>PDGRG</scope><scope>PDWWI</scope><scope>PETMR</scope><scope>PFVGT</scope><scope>PGXDX</scope><scope>PIHIL</scope><scope>PISVA</scope><scope>PJCTQ</scope><scope>PJTMS</scope><scope>PLCHJ</scope><scope>PMHAD</scope><scope>PNQDJ</scope><scope>POUND</scope><scope>PPLAD</scope><scope>PQAPC</scope><scope>PQCAN</scope><scope>PQCMW</scope><scope>PQEME</scope><scope>PQHKH</scope><scope>PQMID</scope><scope>PQNCT</scope><scope>PQNET</scope><scope>PQSCT</scope><scope>PQSET</scope><scope>PSVJG</scope><scope>PVMQY</scope><scope>PZGFC</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7QG</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7X2</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88A</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M0K</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>PADUT</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>R05</scope></search><sort><creationdate>199811</creationdate><title>Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States</title><author>Iverson, Louis R. ; Prasad, Anantha M.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c6035-b77cba7a9da7de4a31fff0182f440ae7446de8d5ac6a7611fa49ccaedf1bb053</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1998</creationdate><topic>Animal, plant and microbial ecology</topic><topic>Applied ecology</topic><topic>ARBOLES FORESTALES</topic><topic>ARBRE FORESTIER</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Biological diversity</topic><topic>CAMBIO CLIMATICO</topic><topic>CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Climate models</topic><topic>CLIMATIC CHANGE</topic><topic>Climatic changes</topic><topic>DISTRIBUCION GEOGRAFICA</topic><topic>DISTRIBUTION GEOGRAPHIQUE</topic><topic>Ecological modeling</topic><topic>Ecotoxicology, biological effects of pollution</topic><topic>envelope analysis</topic><topic>Environmental aspects</topic><topic>ETATS UNIS</topic><topic>EUA</topic><topic>Forest ecology</topic><topic>forest inventory</topic><topic>Forest service</topic><topic>Forest soils</topic><topic>FOREST TREES</topic><topic>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. 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We developed models to evaluate potential shifts for 80 individual tree species in the eastern United States. First, environmental factors associated with current ranges of tree species were assessed using geographic information systems (GIS) in conjunction with regression tree analysis (RTA). The method was then extended to better understand the potential of species to survive and/or migrate under a changed climate. We collected, summarized, and analyzed data for climate, soils, land use, elevation, and species assemblages for >2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data for >100 000 forested plots in the East provided the tree species range and abundance information for the trees. RTA was used to devise prediction rules from current species-environment relationships, which were then used to replicate the current distribution as well as predict the future potential distributions under two scenarios of climate change with twofold increases in the level of atmospheric CO2. Validation measures prove the utility of the RTA modeling approach for mapping current tree importance values across large areas, leading to increased confidence in the predictions of potential future species distributions. With our analysis of potential effects, we show that roughly 30 species could expand their range and/or weighted importance at least 10%, while an additional 30 species could decrease by at least 10%, following equilibrium after a changed climate. Depending on the global change scenario used, 4-9 species would potentially move out of the United States to the north. Nearly half of the species assessed (36 out of 80) showed the potential for the ecological optima to shift at least 100 km to the north, including seven that could move >250 km. Given these potential future distributions, actual species redistributions will be controlled by migration rates possible through fragmented landscapes.</abstract><cop>Washington, DC</cop><pub>Ecological Society of America</pub><doi>10.1890/0012-9615(1998)068[0465:PAOTSF]2.0.CO;2</doi><tpages>21</tpages></addata></record> |
| fulltext | fulltext |
| identifier | ISSN: 0012-9615 |
| ispartof | Ecological monographs, 1998-11, Vol.68 (4), p.465-485 |
| issn | 0012-9615 1557-7015 |
| language | eng |
| recordid | cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_17142145 |
| source | Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete; Periodicals Index Online; Jstor Complete Legacy |
| subjects | Animal, plant and microbial ecology Applied ecology ARBOLES FORESTALES ARBRE FORESTIER Biological and medical sciences Biological diversity CAMBIO CLIMATICO CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE Climate change Climate models CLIMATIC CHANGE Climatic changes DISTRIBUCION GEOGRAFICA DISTRIBUTION GEOGRAPHIQUE Ecological modeling Ecotoxicology, biological effects of pollution envelope analysis Environmental aspects ETATS UNIS EUA Forest ecology forest inventory Forest service Forest soils FOREST TREES Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Geographic information systems geographic information systems (GIS) GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION global change GLOBAL WARMING landscape ecology MODELE DE SIMULATION Modeling MODELOS DE SIMULACION predictive vegetation mapping regression tree analysis (RTA) SIMULATION MODELS Species species–environment relationships Terrestrial environment, soil, air tree species distribution tree species migration tree species ranges Trees USA Vegetation Vegetation mapping |
| title | Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States |
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