Validation of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Scoring System in a UK Adult Cardiac Surgery Population

Objective The Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) scoring system was conceived in 2007, utilizing 12 physiologic variables taken from the first 24 hours of adult admissions to the general intensive care unit (ICU) to predict in-hospital mortality. The authors aimed to evaluate the ICNARC score in predicting mortality in cardiac surgical patients compared to established cardiac risk models such as logistic EuroSCORE as well as to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II. Design Retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively. Setting Single-center study in a cardiac intensive care in a regional cardiothoracic center. Participants Patients undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2010 and June 2012. Methods A total of 1,646 patients were scored preoperatively using the logistic EuroSCORE and postoperatively using ICNARC and APACHE II. Data for comparison of scoring systems are presented as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Measurements and Main Results The mean age at surgery was 67 years±10.1. The mortality from all cardiac surgery was 3.2%. The mean logistic EuroSCORE was 7.31±10.13, the mean ICNARC score was 13.42±5.055, while the mean APACHE II score was 6.32±7.731. The c-indices for logistic EuroSCORE, ICNARC, and APACHE II were 0.801, 0.847 and 0.648, respectively. Conclusion The authors have, for the first time, validated the ICNARC score as a useful predictor of postoperative mortality in adult cardiac surgical patients. This could have implications for postoperative management, focusing the utilization of resources as well as a method to measure and compare performance in the cardiothoracic ICU.