The uncertainty of biomass estimates from modeled ICESat-2 returns across a boreal forest gradient

The Forest Light (FLIGHT) radiative transfer model was used to examine the uncertainty of vegetation structure measurements from NASA's planned ICESat-2 photon counting light detection and ranging (LiDAR) instrument across a synthetic Larix forest gradient in the taiga–tundra ecotone. The simulations demonstrate how measurements from the planned spaceborne mission, which differ from those of previous LiDAR systems, may perform across a boreal forest to non-forest structure gradient in globally important ecological region of northern Siberia. We used a modified version of FLIGHT to simulate the acquisition parameters of ICESat-2. Modeled returns were analyzed from collections of sequential footprints along LiDAR tracks (link-scales) of lengths ranging from 20m–90m. These link-scales traversed synthetic forest stands that were initialized with parameters drawn from field surveys in Siberian Larix forests. LiDAR returns from vegetation were compiled for 100 simulated LiDAR collections for each 10Mg·ha−1 interval in the 0–100Mg·ha−1 above-ground biomass density (AGB) forest gradient. Canopy height metrics were computed and AGB was inferred from empirical models. The root mean square error (RMSE) and RMSE uncertainty associated with the distribution of inferred AGB within each AGB interval across the gradient was examined. Simulation results of the bright daylight and low vegetation reflectivity conditions for collecting photon counting LiDAR with no topographic relief show that 1–2 photons are returned for 79%–88% of LiDAR shots. Signal photons account for ~67% of all LiDAR returns, while ~50% of shots result in 1 signal photon returned. The proportion of these signal photon returns do not differ significantly (p>0.05) for AGB intervals >20Mg·ha−1. The 50m link-scale approximates the finest horizontal resolution (length) at which photon counting LiDAR collection provides strong model fits and minimizes forest structure uncertainty in the synthetic Larix stands. At this link-scale AGB >20Mg·ha−1 has AGB error from 20–50% at the 95% confidence level. These results suggest that the theoretical sensitivity of ICESat-2 photon counting LiDAR measurements alone lack the ability to consistently discern differences in inferred AGB at 10Mg·ha−1 intervals in sparse forests characteristic of the taiga–tundra ecotone. •FLIGHT simulated ICESat-2 LiDAR for a sparse boreal forest gradient.•Simulations show the uncertainty of AGB inferred from simulated forest heights.•Signal