Impact of climate change on hydrology of upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China
► An upgraded reliability ensemble averaging method is used for climate projections. ► An inverse distance weighting method with MODWEC is proposed under data scarcity. ► Uncertainty is considered by using different emission scenarios and time stages. ► Simulated changes indicate likely more floods...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) 2013-03, Vol.483, p.51-60 |
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| creator | Xu, Yue-Ping Zhang, Xujie Ran, Qihua Tian, Ye |
| description | ► An upgraded reliability ensemble averaging method is used for climate projections. ► An inverse distance weighting method with MODWEC is proposed under data scarcity. ► Uncertainty is considered by using different emission scenarios and time stages. ► Simulated changes indicate likely more floods in summer and droughts in autumn.
The hydrological cycle has been substantially influenced by climate change and human activities. It is therefore of utmost importance to analyze the impact of climate change on hydrology, particularly on a regional scale, in order to understand potential future changes of water resources and water-related disaster, and provide support for regional water management. However, during the evaluation of climate change impact on hydrology or water resources, large uncertainty exists. In this paper, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to investigate the potential impact of climate change on hydrology of the upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China, for the future period 2011–2100. The uncertainty is considered by employing upgraded reliability ensemble averaged GCM climate projections under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three different stages of the future period. These projections are downscaled and used in the hydrological model. Impact of climate change on precipitation, potential evapotranspiraton and river runoff is then investigated. The model calibration and validation outcomes show reasonable performance of the SWAT model. The final results suggest that annual river runoff will likely decrease almost under all emission scenarios and time stages of the future period. Particularly, at Jinhua Station, substantial decrease of annual river runoff can be noticed, indicating less water resource possibly available for the region in future. Simulated monthly patterns show that the largest decrease will likely occur in winter while increases will occur in summer, implying possible more water-related disasters in this region. However, it is also noticed that the change signs/amount could be different under different emission scenarios and time stages, indicating large uncertainty involved in the impact analysis. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.004 |
| format | Article |
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The hydrological cycle has been substantially influenced by climate change and human activities. It is therefore of utmost importance to analyze the impact of climate change on hydrology, particularly on a regional scale, in order to understand potential future changes of water resources and water-related disaster, and provide support for regional water management. However, during the evaluation of climate change impact on hydrology or water resources, large uncertainty exists. In this paper, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to investigate the potential impact of climate change on hydrology of the upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China, for the future period 2011–2100. The uncertainty is considered by employing upgraded reliability ensemble averaged GCM climate projections under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three different stages of the future period. These projections are downscaled and used in the hydrological model. Impact of climate change on precipitation, potential evapotranspiraton and river runoff is then investigated. The model calibration and validation outcomes show reasonable performance of the SWAT model. The final results suggest that annual river runoff will likely decrease almost under all emission scenarios and time stages of the future period. Particularly, at Jinhua Station, substantial decrease of annual river runoff can be noticed, indicating less water resource possibly available for the region in future. Simulated monthly patterns show that the largest decrease will likely occur in winter while increases will occur in summer, implying possible more water-related disasters in this region. However, it is also noticed that the change signs/amount could be different under different emission scenarios and time stages, indicating large uncertainty involved in the impact analysis.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0022-1694</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1879-2707</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.004</identifier><identifier>CODEN: JHYDA7</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Kidlington: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>China ; Climate change ; Earth sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; Freshwater ; Hydrology ; Hydrology. Hydrogeology ; Lanjiang River ; River basins ; Rivers ; Runoff ; SWAT ; Uncertainty ; Upgraded reliability ensemble averaging ; Water resources</subject><ispartof>Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), 2013-03, Vol.483, p.51-60</ispartof><rights>2013 Elsevier B.V.</rights><rights>2014 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a494t-8fc7636a61c4f722685e52f385f979ea2ba99e49c61afd6656531c1f244834163</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a494t-8fc7636a61c4f722685e52f385f979ea2ba99e49c61afd6656531c1f244834163</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169413000322$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3537,27901,27902,65306</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=27043306$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Xu, Yue-Ping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Xujie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ran, Qihua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tian, Ye</creatorcontrib><title>Impact of climate change on hydrology of upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China</title><title>Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam)</title><description>► An upgraded reliability ensemble averaging method is used for climate projections. ► An inverse distance weighting method with MODWEC is proposed under data scarcity. ► Uncertainty is considered by using different emission scenarios and time stages. ► Simulated changes indicate likely more floods in summer and droughts in autumn.
The hydrological cycle has been substantially influenced by climate change and human activities. It is therefore of utmost importance to analyze the impact of climate change on hydrology, particularly on a regional scale, in order to understand potential future changes of water resources and water-related disaster, and provide support for regional water management. However, during the evaluation of climate change impact on hydrology or water resources, large uncertainty exists. In this paper, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to investigate the potential impact of climate change on hydrology of the upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China, for the future period 2011–2100. The uncertainty is considered by employing upgraded reliability ensemble averaged GCM climate projections under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three different stages of the future period. These projections are downscaled and used in the hydrological model. Impact of climate change on precipitation, potential evapotranspiraton and river runoff is then investigated. The model calibration and validation outcomes show reasonable performance of the SWAT model. The final results suggest that annual river runoff will likely decrease almost under all emission scenarios and time stages of the future period. Particularly, at Jinhua Station, substantial decrease of annual river runoff can be noticed, indicating less water resource possibly available for the region in future. Simulated monthly patterns show that the largest decrease will likely occur in winter while increases will occur in summer, implying possible more water-related disasters in this region. However, it is also noticed that the change signs/amount could be different under different emission scenarios and time stages, indicating large uncertainty involved in the impact analysis.</description><subject>China</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Earth sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Freshwater</subject><subject>Hydrology</subject><subject>Hydrology. Hydrogeology</subject><subject>Lanjiang River</subject><subject>River basins</subject><subject>Rivers</subject><subject>Runoff</subject><subject>SWAT</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><subject>Upgraded reliability ensemble averaging</subject><subject>Water resources</subject><issn>0022-1694</issn><issn>1879-2707</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqFkU1r3DAQQEVpoNskP6GgS6GH2tFIsmydSrukbSAQWtpLLmKqHWW1eG1X8gb231dml16jy4DmzQdvGHsHogYB5mZX77bHTRr7WgpQtYBaCP2KraBrbSVb0b5mKyGkrMBY_Ya9zXknylNKr9jj3X5CP_MxcN_HPc7E_RaHJ-LjwE9dx6fjkj5MEyWeCP2W8vLxI-IwF5T_jM8l8wVzHD7yW8wzX2_jgFfsImCf6focL9nvr7e_1t-r-4dvd-vP9xVqq-eqC741yqABr0MrpekaamRQXRNsawnlH7SWtPUGMGyMaUyjwEOQWndKg1GX7MOp75TGvwfKs9vH7KnvcaDxkB2YFowEY-TLqILOWGlNW9DmhPo05pwouCkVP-noQLhFu9u5s3a3aHcCXNFe6t6fR2D22IeEg4_5f3E5h1ZKLFt_OnFU1DxHSi77SIOnTUzkZ7cZ4wuT_gF2aJkq</recordid><startdate>20130313</startdate><enddate>20130313</enddate><creator>Xu, Yue-Ping</creator><creator>Zhang, Xujie</creator><creator>Ran, Qihua</creator><creator>Tian, Ye</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier</general><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SU</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>KR7</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20130313</creationdate><title>Impact of climate change on hydrology of upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China</title><author>Xu, Yue-Ping ; Zhang, Xujie ; Ran, Qihua ; Tian, Ye</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a494t-8fc7636a61c4f722685e52f385f979ea2ba99e49c61afd6656531c1f244834163</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>China</topic><topic>Climate change</topic><topic>Earth sciences</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>Freshwater</topic><topic>Hydrology</topic><topic>Hydrology. Hydrogeology</topic><topic>Lanjiang River</topic><topic>River basins</topic><topic>Rivers</topic><topic>Runoff</topic><topic>SWAT</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><topic>Upgraded reliability ensemble averaging</topic><topic>Water resources</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Xu, Yue-Ping</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Zhang, Xujie</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ran, Qihua</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tian, Ye</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Environmental Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><jtitle>Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Xu, Yue-Ping</au><au>Zhang, Xujie</au><au>Ran, Qihua</au><au>Tian, Ye</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Impact of climate change on hydrology of upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China</atitle><jtitle>Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam)</jtitle><date>2013-03-13</date><risdate>2013</risdate><volume>483</volume><spage>51</spage><epage>60</epage><pages>51-60</pages><issn>0022-1694</issn><eissn>1879-2707</eissn><coden>JHYDA7</coden><abstract>► An upgraded reliability ensemble averaging method is used for climate projections. ► An inverse distance weighting method with MODWEC is proposed under data scarcity. ► Uncertainty is considered by using different emission scenarios and time stages. ► Simulated changes indicate likely more floods in summer and droughts in autumn.
The hydrological cycle has been substantially influenced by climate change and human activities. It is therefore of utmost importance to analyze the impact of climate change on hydrology, particularly on a regional scale, in order to understand potential future changes of water resources and water-related disaster, and provide support for regional water management. However, during the evaluation of climate change impact on hydrology or water resources, large uncertainty exists. In this paper, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to investigate the potential impact of climate change on hydrology of the upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China, for the future period 2011–2100. The uncertainty is considered by employing upgraded reliability ensemble averaged GCM climate projections under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three different stages of the future period. These projections are downscaled and used in the hydrological model. Impact of climate change on precipitation, potential evapotranspiraton and river runoff is then investigated. The model calibration and validation outcomes show reasonable performance of the SWAT model. The final results suggest that annual river runoff will likely decrease almost under all emission scenarios and time stages of the future period. Particularly, at Jinhua Station, substantial decrease of annual river runoff can be noticed, indicating less water resource possibly available for the region in future. Simulated monthly patterns show that the largest decrease will likely occur in winter while increases will occur in summer, implying possible more water-related disasters in this region. However, it is also noticed that the change signs/amount could be different under different emission scenarios and time stages, indicating large uncertainty involved in the impact analysis.</abstract><cop>Kidlington</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.004</doi><tpages>10</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | China Climate change Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Freshwater Hydrology Hydrology. Hydrogeology Lanjiang River River basins Rivers Runoff SWAT Uncertainty Upgraded reliability ensemble averaging Water resources |
| title | Impact of climate change on hydrology of upper reaches of Qiantang River Basin, East China |
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