Prospective study of healthy older drivers: No increase in crash involvement or traffic citations at 24months following a failed on-road assessment

► Fifty-six older drivers followed for 2years following pass or fail on-road outcomes. ► Incidence of self- and officially-reported crashes and traffic offences as outcome. ► A negligible relationship was found between fail outcome and crashes or offences. ► On-road assessments for low-risk older drivers are not recommended. There is a general belief that requesting driving assessments for older drivers without evidence of cognitive impairment is a poor use of resources. There is, however, limited empirical evidence to support this view. We prospectively followed 56 neurologically-healthy drivers aged 70–84years for 24months to determine whether a non-enforced pass or fail outcome on an on-road driving assessment was related to the subsequent incidence of self- and officially-reported crashes and traffic offences. There was no significant relationship found between pass or fail outcome and either later crashes, or crashes combined with the more common occurrence of traffic offences. However, drivers who drove more km at the initial assessment were more likely to have a crash or traffic offence in the following 2years. This prospective study suggests that an on-road driving assessment provides little indication of crash and traffic offence likelihood in the subsequent 2years in the context of older drivers who do not have cognitive impairment.