A proposed method to assess the damage risk of future climate change to museum objects in historic buildings

Future climate change is expected to have a critical effect on valuable museum collections that are housed in historic buildings. Changes of the indoor environment in the building affect the microclimate around the museum objects and may cause damage to the collection. In this study, a method is proposed to assess the damage risk of future climate change to museum objects in historic buildings. The method is applied for two historic museum buildings in The Netherlands and Belgium. The impact of climate change on the indoor environment of the buildings is analysed by combining weather data from a future outdoor climate scenario with an indoor climate simulation model. Two museum rooms in each building, containing collections of historic paintings and wooden furniture, are modelled. The predicted indoor environment from 1950 until 2099 in the four museum rooms is assessed based on the ASHRAE guidelines for indoor conditions related to museum collections. In addition, the potential damage risk of climate change to two typical museum objects is investigated. For the examined case studies, it is found that the expected climate change considerably increases both indoor temperature and relative humidity. Of these two factors, the rising relative humidity has the highest impact on the damage potential for museum objects. Based on the results of the proposed method, it is expected that future climate change in historic buildings may in some cases increase mould growth, but may not have a significant impact on mechanical degradation of objects. ► Two historic buildings with collections of paintings and furniture are examined. ► The indoor environment is simulated and validated with on-site measurements. ► Future indoor climate conditions are predicted with an outdoor climate scenario. ► Future climate change may in some cases increase mould growth. ► No significant impact of climate change on mechanical degradation is predicted.