Niche dynamics and potential geographic distribution of Didymosphenia geminata (Lyngbye) M. Schmidt, an invasive freshwater diatom in Southern Chile

Aquatic invasive species are a major threat to native freshwater ecosystems and cause enormous ecological and economic damage worldwide. Didymosphenia geminata (Lyngbye) M. Schmidt is an emerging invasive aquatic species that is spreading aggressively in Southern South America. Using niche analysis and species distribution models (SDMs), we examined niche requirements of D. geminata using climatic, topographic, and biological variables. We compared the realized niche of the species in the United States (US) with the niche in Chile. Within Chile, we also examined the environmental conditions (environmental envelopes) of rivers with and without this alga, to assess whether this species has the potential to colonize more rivers. Finally, we compared the SDMs from the US and Chile projected to Chile. Results showed that the potential distribution of D. geminata varied significantly between US and Chile. The US-based model predicted a geographic distribution in Chile which ranged from 32[degrees] to 55[degrees] S latitude while the Chile-based model predicted suitable habitats only from 36[degrees] to 48[degrees] S, and not so in the coastal ranges nor in Southern Patagonia (~52-55[degrees]S). In Chile, we found no differences in the environmental envelopes of the invaded and uninvaded rivers, thus suggesting that this species has even more suitable habitats to invade. These results can be used for prioritizing survey sites in Southern Chile for an early detection and management of D. geminata and for the conservation of native flora and fauna in freshwater ecosystems in Chile.