How do offenders move through the stages of change?

This study sought to investigate the way in which offenders moved through the stages of change. The University of Rhode Island Change Assessment Scale (URICA) was administered to a group of general offenders (N = 371) who participated in the Short Motivational Programme (SMP), a brief motivational interviewing programme administered to medium-risk offenders in New Zealand. The offenders' URICA responses were subjected to a cross-lagged panel analysis using structural equation modelling. Four models specifying different prospective associations between stage engagements were examined. It was hypothesised that there would be support for sequential transitions through the stages as proposed by the Stages of Change model. However, the analysis rendered support for and against sequential transitions, in that offenders regressed to earlier stages or skipped a stage post-SMP. Offenders who skipped to an adjacent stage after the SMP may have actually passed through an intermediary stage during the intervention, and those who regressed to an earlier stage post-SMP may have gained a more realistic awareness of their problem behaviour. This finding also raises questions about the practical utility of the model with offenders and highlights the need for more rigorous studies investigating the way offenders move through the stages of change.