Match-mismatch dynamics and the relationship between ocean-entry timing and relative ocean recoveries of Central Valley fall run Chinook salmon

The match-mismatch hypothesis suggests there is an optimal window for organisms to undergo key life cycle events. Here, we test the importance of match-mismatch dynamics in the timing of salmon arrival to the ocean, relative to ecosystem phenology, for the ocean survival rates of hatchery-origin fall run Chinook salmon originating from California’s Central Valley. Specifically, we considered tag recovery data for releases of coded-wire tagged fish released into the San Francisco Estuary during the years 1978 to 2010. We determined a time lag for each release relative to the local spring transition date (initiation of net upwelling). Additionally, we obtained information on fish condition and size at release, the number of fish released corresponding to distinct tag codes, and yearly stock-specific harvest rate estimates. We used generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and cross-validation to identify the best-supported models for the effects of release timing and other covariates on age-3 ocean fishery recovery rates, a proxy of ocean survival rates. Release time is a useful predictor of within-year variation in survival rates, above and beyond the effects of size at release, presence of disease, and the use of net pens, and the lag relative to spring transition was a slightly better predictor than year-day. The optimal release timing appeared to occur around the end of May, and the optimal time lag appeared to be approximately 70 to 115 d after the spring transition date. However, timing is only one of many factors that affected within- and among-year variation in survival.