Biomarkers and Mortality After Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Ischemic Stroke: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE—Premature death after transient ischemic attack or stroke is more often because of heart disease or cancer than stroke. Previous studies found blood biomarkers not usefully predictive of nonfatal stroke but possibly of all-cause death. This association might be explained by potentially treatable occult cardiac disease or cancer. We therefore aimed to validate the association of a panel of biomarkers with all-cause death, particularly cardiac death and cancer death, despite the absence of associations with risk of nonfatal vascular events. METHODS—Fifteen biomarkers were measured in 929 consecutive patients in a population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study), recruited from 2002 and followed up to 2013. Associations were determined by Cox regression. Model discrimination was assessed by c-statistic and the integrated discrimination improvement. RESULTS—During 5560 patient-years of follow-up, none of the biomarkers predicted risk of nonfatal vascular events. However, soluble tumor necrosis factor α receptor-1, von Willebrand factor, heart-type fatty-acid-binding protein, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide were independently predictive of all-cause death (n=361; adjusted hazard ratio per SD, 95% confidence intervalheart-type fatty-acid-binding protein1.31, 1.12–1.56, P=0.002; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide1.34, 1.11–1.62, P=0.002; soluble tumor necrosis factor α receptor-11.45, 1.26–1.66, P=0.02; von Willebrand factor1.19, 1.04–1.36, P=0.01). The independent contribution of the four biomarkers taken together added prognostic information and improved model discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement=0.028, P=0.0001). N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was most predictive of vascular death (adjusted hazard ratio=1.80, 95% confidence interval, 1.34–2.41, P