Calculating uncertainties on predictions of palaeoprecipitation from the magnetic properties of soils
Quantitative predictions of past climate states based on calibrated proxy data are key to the reconstruction of palaeoenvironments and are essential for climate model validation. Magnetic climofunctions have been used to make predictions concerning past climates based on soil magnetic mineral assemb...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Global and planetary change 2013-11, Vol.110, p.379-385 |
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description | Quantitative predictions of past climate states based on calibrated proxy data are key to the reconstruction of palaeoenvironments and are essential for climate model validation. Magnetic climofunctions have been used to make predictions concerning past climates based on soil magnetic mineral assemblages. For example, detailed time series of Quaternary mean annual precipitation and palaeoprecipitation gradients across wide geographic regions have been predicted from the rock magnetic properties of Chinese loess and palaeosol units. Quantitative prediction requires full assessment of the uncertainties associated with predictions. However, little attention has been given to this important aspect of climofunction prediction. We present an analysis of an ensemble of published rock magnetic climofunctions and estimate the uncertainty of the associated predictions. We find that existing climofunctions have associated uncertainties that are so large that their subsequent predictions are effectively invalid. Thus, palaeoprecipitation reconstructions must be treated with extreme caution. In the future climofunctions that are constrained geologically through the inclusion of theoretical models of soil development may provide predictions with lower uncertainties.
► We place empirical magnetic climofunctions within a statistical framework. ► The uncertainties associated with palaeoprecipitation predications are assessed. ► Discrimination intervals show that climofunction prediction uncertainties are large. |
doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.013 |
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► We place empirical magnetic climofunctions within a statistical framework. ► The uncertainties associated with palaeoprecipitation predications are assessed. ► Discrimination intervals show that climofunction prediction uncertainties are large.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0921-8181</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1872-6364</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.013</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V</publisher><subject>Assessments ; atmospheric precipitation ; Climate ; climate models ; climofunction ; discrimination intervals ; Earth sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Exact sciences and technology ; Geophysics: general, magnetic, electric and thermic methods and properties ; Internal geophysics ; loess ; Magnetic properties ; magnetic susceptibility ; Marine and continental quaternary ; Mathematical models ; model validation ; palaeoprecipitation ; pedogenesis ; prediction ; Reconstruction ; Rock ; soil ; Soils ; Surficial geology ; time series analysis ; Uncertainty</subject><ispartof>Global and planetary change, 2013-11, Vol.110, p.379-385</ispartof><rights>2012 Elsevier B.V.</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a458t-f071019570e980df8b9cf3a3244b74665d375d57686169acdc40c3563c661b153</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a458t-f071019570e980df8b9cf3a3244b74665d375d57686169acdc40c3563c661b153</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.013$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>309,310,314,780,784,789,790,3550,23930,23931,25140,27924,27925,45995</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=28245381$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Heslop, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roberts, Andrew P.</creatorcontrib><title>Calculating uncertainties on predictions of palaeoprecipitation from the magnetic properties of soils</title><title>Global and planetary change</title><description>Quantitative predictions of past climate states based on calibrated proxy data are key to the reconstruction of palaeoenvironments and are essential for climate model validation. Magnetic climofunctions have been used to make predictions concerning past climates based on soil magnetic mineral assemblages. For example, detailed time series of Quaternary mean annual precipitation and palaeoprecipitation gradients across wide geographic regions have been predicted from the rock magnetic properties of Chinese loess and palaeosol units. Quantitative prediction requires full assessment of the uncertainties associated with predictions. However, little attention has been given to this important aspect of climofunction prediction. We present an analysis of an ensemble of published rock magnetic climofunctions and estimate the uncertainty of the associated predictions. We find that existing climofunctions have associated uncertainties that are so large that their subsequent predictions are effectively invalid. Thus, palaeoprecipitation reconstructions must be treated with extreme caution. In the future climofunctions that are constrained geologically through the inclusion of theoretical models of soil development may provide predictions with lower uncertainties.
► We place empirical magnetic climofunctions within a statistical framework. ► The uncertainties associated with palaeoprecipitation predications are assessed. ► Discrimination intervals show that climofunction prediction uncertainties are large.</description><subject>Assessments</subject><subject>atmospheric precipitation</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>climate models</subject><subject>climofunction</subject><subject>discrimination intervals</subject><subject>Earth sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>Geophysics: general, magnetic, electric and thermic methods and properties</subject><subject>Internal geophysics</subject><subject>loess</subject><subject>Magnetic properties</subject><subject>magnetic susceptibility</subject><subject>Marine and continental quaternary</subject><subject>Mathematical models</subject><subject>model validation</subject><subject>palaeoprecipitation</subject><subject>pedogenesis</subject><subject>prediction</subject><subject>Reconstruction</subject><subject>Rock</subject><subject>soil</subject><subject>Soils</subject><subject>Surficial geology</subject><subject>time series analysis</subject><subject>Uncertainty</subject><issn>0921-8181</issn><issn>1872-6364</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqNkc2OFCEUhYnRxLb1GaY2Jm6q5ELxU8tJR0eTSVzorMltCnro0EUJtIlvL21PZqsrws13DudyCLkBOgAF-fE4HGJaI9pHHBgFNgAMFPgLsgGtWC-5HF-SDZ0Y9Bo0vCZvSjlSCooytiFuh9GeI9awHLrzYl2uGJYaXOnS0q3ZzcHWkJZ29d2KEV1qQxvWUPEy73xOp64-uu6Eh8XVYJsorc3mr4XvSgqxvCWvPMbi3j2dW_Lw-dOP3Zf-_tvd193tfY-j0LX3VLWVJqGomzSdvd5P1nPkbBz3apRSzFyJWSipJcgJ7WxHarmQ3EoJexB8Sz5cfVuGn2dXqjmFYl2MuLh0LgakAD7JUfP_QLmgfGLT1FB1RW1OpWTnzZrDCfNvA9RcOjBH89yBuXRgAEzroCnfPz2CxWL0GRcbyrOcaTYKrqFxN1fOYzJ4yI15-N6MBKWMatWybMntlXDt-34Fl02xwbW-5tDqqGZO4Z9p_gB4lKq7</recordid><startdate>20131101</startdate><enddate>20131101</enddate><creator>Heslop, David</creator><creator>Roberts, Andrew P.</creator><general>Elsevier B.V</general><general>Elsevier</general><scope>FBQ</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>H8D</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L7M</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20131101</creationdate><title>Calculating uncertainties on predictions of palaeoprecipitation from the magnetic properties of soils</title><author>Heslop, David ; Roberts, Andrew P.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-a458t-f071019570e980df8b9cf3a3244b74665d375d57686169acdc40c3563c661b153</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>Assessments</topic><topic>atmospheric precipitation</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>climate models</topic><topic>climofunction</topic><topic>discrimination intervals</topic><topic>Earth sciences</topic><topic>Earth, ocean, space</topic><topic>Exact sciences and technology</topic><topic>Geophysics: general, magnetic, electric and thermic methods and properties</topic><topic>Internal geophysics</topic><topic>loess</topic><topic>Magnetic properties</topic><topic>magnetic susceptibility</topic><topic>Marine and continental quaternary</topic><topic>Mathematical models</topic><topic>model validation</topic><topic>palaeoprecipitation</topic><topic>pedogenesis</topic><topic>prediction</topic><topic>Reconstruction</topic><topic>Rock</topic><topic>soil</topic><topic>Soils</topic><topic>Surficial geology</topic><topic>time series analysis</topic><topic>Uncertainty</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Heslop, David</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Roberts, Andrew P.</creatorcontrib><collection>AGRIS</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>Engineering Research Database</collection><collection>Aerospace Database</collection><collection>Civil Engineering Abstracts</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies Database with Aerospace</collection><jtitle>Global and planetary change</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Heslop, David</au><au>Roberts, Andrew P.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Calculating uncertainties on predictions of palaeoprecipitation from the magnetic properties of soils</atitle><jtitle>Global and planetary change</jtitle><date>2013-11-01</date><risdate>2013</risdate><volume>110</volume><spage>379</spage><epage>385</epage><pages>379-385</pages><issn>0921-8181</issn><eissn>1872-6364</eissn><abstract>Quantitative predictions of past climate states based on calibrated proxy data are key to the reconstruction of palaeoenvironments and are essential for climate model validation. Magnetic climofunctions have been used to make predictions concerning past climates based on soil magnetic mineral assemblages. For example, detailed time series of Quaternary mean annual precipitation and palaeoprecipitation gradients across wide geographic regions have been predicted from the rock magnetic properties of Chinese loess and palaeosol units. Quantitative prediction requires full assessment of the uncertainties associated with predictions. However, little attention has been given to this important aspect of climofunction prediction. We present an analysis of an ensemble of published rock magnetic climofunctions and estimate the uncertainty of the associated predictions. We find that existing climofunctions have associated uncertainties that are so large that their subsequent predictions are effectively invalid. Thus, palaeoprecipitation reconstructions must be treated with extreme caution. In the future climofunctions that are constrained geologically through the inclusion of theoretical models of soil development may provide predictions with lower uncertainties.
► We place empirical magnetic climofunctions within a statistical framework. ► The uncertainties associated with palaeoprecipitation predications are assessed. ► Discrimination intervals show that climofunction prediction uncertainties are large.</abstract><cop>Amsterdam</cop><pub>Elsevier B.V</pub><doi>10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.013</doi><tpages>7</tpages></addata></record> |
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subjects | Assessments atmospheric precipitation Climate climate models climofunction discrimination intervals Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Geophysics: general, magnetic, electric and thermic methods and properties Internal geophysics loess Magnetic properties magnetic susceptibility Marine and continental quaternary Mathematical models model validation palaeoprecipitation pedogenesis prediction Reconstruction Rock soil Soils Surficial geology time series analysis Uncertainty |
title | Calculating uncertainties on predictions of palaeoprecipitation from the magnetic properties of soils |
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