Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil
This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2013-03, Vol.117 (1-2), p.227-239 |
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| creator | Marin, Fabio R. Jones, James W. Singels, Abraham Royce, Frederick Assad, Eduardo D. Pellegrino, Giampaolo Q. Justino, Flávio |
| description | This study evaluated the effects of climate change on sugarcane yield, water use efficiency, and irrigation needs in southern Brazil, based on downscaled outputs of two general circulation models (PRECIS and CSIRO) and a sugarcane growth model. For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO
2
concentration [CO
2
] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO
2
], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t ha
−1
, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10584-012-0561-y |
| format | Article |
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2
concentration [CO
2
] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO
2
], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t ha
−1
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2
concentration [CO
2
] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO
2
], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t ha
−1
, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.</description><subject>Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage</subject><subject>Agricultural production</subject><subject>Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions</subject><subject>Air temperature</subject><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Brazil</subject><subject>Calibration</subject><subject>Carbon dioxide</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Climate effects</subject><subject>Climatic conditions</subject><subject>Computer simulation</subject><subject>Cultivars</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Efficiency</subject><subject>Environmental impact</subject><subject>Field tests</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>General agronomy. Plant production</subject><subject>General circulation models</subject><subject>GNP</subject><subject>Gross National Product</subject><subject>Growth models</subject><subject>Harvest</subject><subject>Irrigation</subject><subject>Irrigation water</subject><subject>Photosynthesis</subject><subject>Radiation</subject><subject>Rain</subject><subject>Rainfall</subject><subject>Seasons</subject><subject>Sugarcane</subject><subject>Temperature</subject><subject>Water supply</subject><subject>Water use</subject><subject>Water use efficiency</subject><issn>0165-0009</issn><issn>1573-1480</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>C6C</sourceid><sourceid>8G5</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><sourceid>GUQSH</sourceid><sourceid>M2O</sourceid><recordid>eNqFkUFLxDAQhYMouK7-AG8FEbxUZ9KmSY-66CoseNFzSNN0N0u3XZP2UH-9KV1EBPE0gfnmzbw8Qi4RbhGA33kEJtIYkMbAMoyHIzJDxpMYUwHHZAaYsRgA8lNy5v12fHGazchyUdud6kykN6pZm8ju9kp3PmqbyPdr5bRqTKS6TtlGFbWJBmvqMrKh2_bdxrgmenDq09bn5KRStTcXhzon70-Pb4vnePW6fFncr2LNKHaxrtCUGedpAbwoeJlQludQUpECz6rKKGDBiA6OiornFedZZkoWqCJFynSazMnNpLt37UdvfCd31mtT1-HOtvcy2MRECE7F_yjNMUORJiygV7_Qbdu7JhgJlEiZgBzH3ThR2rXeO1PJvQuf5waJIMcU5JSCDCnIMQU5hJnrg7LyWtWVU422_nuQcpYLLvLA0YnzoRWCcD8u-FP8C_ytlWc</recordid><startdate>20130301</startdate><enddate>20130301</enddate><creator>Marin, Fabio R.</creator><creator>Jones, James W.</creator><creator>Singels, Abraham</creator><creator>Royce, Frederick</creator><creator>Assad, Eduardo D.</creator><creator>Pellegrino, Giampaolo Q.</creator><creator>Justino, Flávio</creator><general>Springer Netherlands</general><general>Springer</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>C6C</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7TN</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>7WY</scope><scope>7WZ</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>87Z</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8FD</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FG</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>8FL</scope><scope>8G5</scope><scope>ABJCF</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>ARAPS</scope><scope>ATCPS</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BEZIV</scope><scope>BGLVJ</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>BKSAR</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>F28</scope><scope>FR3</scope><scope>FRNLG</scope><scope>F~G</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>GUQSH</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K60</scope><scope>K6~</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>KR7</scope><scope>L.-</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>L6V</scope><scope>M0C</scope><scope>M2O</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>M7S</scope><scope>MBDVC</scope><scope>P5Z</scope><scope>P62</scope><scope>PATMY</scope><scope>PCBAR</scope><scope>PQBIZ</scope><scope>PQBZA</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PTHSS</scope><scope>PYCSY</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>R05</scope><scope>SOI</scope><scope>7QH</scope><scope>7U6</scope><scope>H96</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20130301</creationdate><title>Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil</title><author>Marin, Fabio R. ; Jones, James W. ; Singels, Abraham ; Royce, Frederick ; Assad, Eduardo D. ; Pellegrino, Giampaolo Q. ; Justino, Flávio</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c521t-cf1ed6774b07bb7d325990d284076ffea05105c007bf79f7766ed5325b4125c43</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. 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For three harvest cycles every year, the DSSAT/CANEGRO model was used to simulate the baseline and four future climate scenarios for stalk yield for the 2050s. The model was calibrated for the main cultivar currently grown in Brazil based on five field experiments under several soil and climate conditions. The sensitivity of simulated stalk fresh mass (SFM) to air temperature, CO
2
concentration [CO
2
] and rainfall was also analyzed. Simulated SFM responses to [CO
2
], air temperature and rainfall variations were consistent with the literature. There were increases in simulated SFM and water usage efficiency (WUE) for all scenarios. On average, for the current sugarcane area in the State of São Paulo, SFM would increase 24 % and WUE 34 % for rainfed sugarcane. The WUE rise is relevant because of the current concern about water supply in southern Brazil. Considering the current technological improvement rate, projected yields for 2050 ranged from 96 to 129 t ha
−1
, which are respectively 15 and 59 % higher than the current state average yield.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10584-012-0561-y</doi><tpages>13</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage Agricultural production Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions Air temperature Atmospheric Sciences Biological and medical sciences Brazil Calibration Carbon dioxide Climate Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate effects Climatic conditions Computer simulation Cultivars Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Efficiency Environmental impact Field tests Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General agronomy. Plant production General circulation models GNP Gross National Product Growth models Harvest Irrigation Irrigation water Photosynthesis Radiation Rain Rainfall Seasons Sugarcane Temperature Water supply Water use Water use efficiency |
| title | Climate change impacts on sugarcane attainable yield in southern Brazil |
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