A statistical inference for concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene partially measured in the ambient air of an industrial city in Korea

Although large quantities of air pollutants are released into the atmosphere, they are partially monitored and routinely assessed for their health implications. This paper proposes a statistical model describing the temporal behavior of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), which can have negative effects on human health. Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is selected for statistical modeling. The proposed model incorporates the linkage between BaP and meteorology and is specifically formulated to identify meteorological effects and allow for seasonal trends. The model is used to estimate and forecast temporal fields of BaP conditional on observed (or forecasted) meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and air quality. The effects of BaP on human health are examined by characterizing health indicators, namely the cancer risk and the hazard quotient. The model provides useful information for the optimal monitoring period and projection of future BaP concentrations for both industrial and residential areas in Korea. •We propose a statistical model describing the temporal behavior of HAPs.•The proposed model incorporates the linkage between BaP and meteorology.•The model is used to estimate and forecast temporal fields of BaP.•The model provides useful information for monitoring and future projection of BaPs.•The effects of BaP on human health are examined by characterizing health indicators.