Nonlinear Feedbacks Associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole and Their Response to Global Warming in the GFDL-ESM2M Coupled Climate Model

A feature of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is its positive skewness, with cold IOD east pole (IODE) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) exhibiting larger amplitudes than warm SSTAs. Using the coupled Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) component (GFDL-ESM2M), the role of nonlinear feedbacks in generating this positive skewness is investigated and their response to global warming examined. These feedbacks are a nonlinear dynamic heating process, the Bjerknes feedback, wind–evaporation–SST feedback, and SST–cloud–radiation feedback. Nonlinear dynamic heating assists IOD skewness by strongly damping warm IODE SSTAs and reinforcing cold IODE anomalies. In a warmer climate, the damping strengthens while the reinforcement weakens. The SST–thermocline relationship is part of the positive Bjerknes feedback and contributes strongly to IOD skewness as it is weak during the development of warm IODE SSTAs, but strong during the development of cold IODE SSTAs. In response to global warming, this relationship displays weaker asymmetry associated with weaker westerly winds over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The negative SST–cloud–radiation feedback is also asymmetric with cold IODE SSTAs less damped by incoming shortwave radiation. Under global warming, the damping of cold IODE SSTAs shows little change but warm IODE SSTAs become more damped. This stronger damping is a symptom of negative IODs becoming stronger in amplitude due to the mean IODE thermocline shoaling. The wind–evaporation–SST feedback does not contribute to IOD asymmetry with cold IODE SSTAs decreasing evaporation, which in turn warms the surface. However, as this study focuses on one model, the response of these feedbacks to global warming is uncertain.