Vulnerability of the Glaciers to Climate Change in China: Current Situation and Evaluation

Glaciers are important water sources in China and adjoining countries, which have rapidly shrunken since the l990s. Adaptation to the glacier shrink is imperative for these countries. It is important to improve our understanding of glacier vulnerability to climate change so that an adaptation strategy can he established. A glacier numerical model is developed by using spatial principle component analysis supported by remote sensing and geographical information system technologies. The model contains nine factors describing topography, climate and glacier characteristics. The spatial distribution of glacier vulnerability and its temporal change in the 21st century for the SERS A1B scenario are analyzed and the factors influencing the vulnerability are discussed. The results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and the zones of heavy and extreme heavy levels accounted for 41% of the whole glaciated area for the period 1961-2007. This is mainly explained by topographical ex