A projection of commercial-scale organic photovoltaic module costs

Organic photovoltaics (OPVs) are a recent technology that has gained much attention as a potential low cost power source. Despite this promise, there is a lack of published studies that address the likely cost of commercial-scale OPV modules. In this work, an engineering study estimate has been performed to determine the projected cost of mass-manufactured OPV modules. The materials, production capital and operating costs have been calculated and sensitivity analyses performed to determine the parameters of greatest economic influence. Significantly, the model includes a calculation of the costs required to establish bulk manufacturing of the current high cost speciality materials components, encompassing synthesis and associated chemical plant design. The economic modelling reveals that the calculated mass-manufactured OPV module costs are considerably lower than current literature estimates, with OPV modules costed at $7.85 per square metre with an uncertainty of±30%. Total module cost was found to be most sensitive to the plastic substrate prices, while the production rate did not have a significant impact on module cost for rates above~50m2/min. The results highlight the future cost potential of OPV technology and can be used to assist with scale-up planning. [Display omitted] •Here we present an engineering study estimate of the projected cost of OPV.•Materials, production capital and operating costs have been calculated.•Sensitivity analysis has determined the parameters of greatest economic influence.•Projected cost of large scale manufacture of OPV modules is $7.85±2.35/m2.•The PET substrate is found to be the major cost in module fabrication.