Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest
Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabb...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Biological invasions 2014-11, Vol.16 (11), p.2403-2425 |
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| creator | Murray, Justine V Berman, David McK van Klinken, Rieks D |
| description | Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km² region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10530-014-0673-6 |
| format | Article |
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We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km² region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1387-3547</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1464</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10530-014-0673-6</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Cham: Springer-Verlag</publisher><subject>Animal, plant and microbial ecology ; Applied ecology ; baiting ; Bayesian analysis ; Biological and medical sciences ; Biomedical and Life Sciences ; Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife ; decision making ; Developmental Biology ; Disease control ; Disease resistance ; Ecology ; experts ; Freshwater & Marine Ecology ; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology ; General aspects ; General aspects. Techniques ; Habitats ; Life Sciences ; Mammalia ; managers ; Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...) ; Nonnative species ; Original Paper ; Oryctolagus cuniculus ; Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking ; Pests ; Plant Sciences ; predation ; Rabbits ; ripping ; risk ; vertebrate pests ; Vertebrates ; Vertebrates: general zoology, morphology, phylogeny, systematics, cytogenetics, geographical distribution ; Wildlife management</subject><ispartof>Biological invasions, 2014-11, Vol.16 (11), p.2403-2425</ispartof><rights>Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c473t-58f456193c40e0edeea811964e6324b78794365fda266653aa9889d17e6023fd3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c473t-58f456193c40e0edeea811964e6324b78794365fda266653aa9889d17e6023fd3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10530-014-0673-6$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10530-014-0673-6$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=28887189$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Murray, Justine V</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Berman, David McK</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Klinken, Rieks D</creatorcontrib><title>Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest</title><title>Biological invasions</title><addtitle>Biol Invasions</addtitle><description>Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km² region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes.</description><subject>Animal, plant and microbial ecology</subject><subject>Applied ecology</subject><subject>baiting</subject><subject>Bayesian analysis</subject><subject>Biological and medical sciences</subject><subject>Biomedical and Life Sciences</subject><subject>Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife</subject><subject>decision making</subject><subject>Developmental Biology</subject><subject>Disease control</subject><subject>Disease resistance</subject><subject>Ecology</subject><subject>experts</subject><subject>Freshwater & Marine Ecology</subject><subject>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</subject><subject>General aspects</subject><subject>General aspects. Techniques</subject><subject>Habitats</subject><subject>Life Sciences</subject><subject>Mammalia</subject><subject>managers</subject><subject>Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...)</subject><subject>Nonnative species</subject><subject>Original Paper</subject><subject>Oryctolagus cuniculus</subject><subject>Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking</subject><subject>Pests</subject><subject>Plant Sciences</subject><subject>predation</subject><subject>Rabbits</subject><subject>ripping</subject><subject>risk</subject><subject>vertebrate pests</subject><subject>Vertebrates</subject><subject>Vertebrates: general zoology, morphology, phylogeny, systematics, cytogenetics, geographical distribution</subject><subject>Wildlife management</subject><issn>1387-3547</issn><issn>1573-1464</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2014</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kUtr3TAQhU1poGmSH9BVBaXQjRONHiN5WUL6gJAEmqzFxB67Dr7WjeQbyL-vLg6hdFEQzIC-czRzVFUfQJ6ClO4sg7Ra1hJMLdHpGt9Uh2BLAwbN29Jr72ptjXtXvc_5QUrZOGkPq6ubxN3YLuMTi03seJrGeRBLFDR2YvnNIvEwxpmmOrc0FYZmGnjD8yJiL0g8cVr4PtHCYst5Oa4Oepoyn7zUo-ru28Xt-Y_68vr7z_Ovl3VrnF5q63tjERrdGsmSO2byAA0aRq3MvfOuMRpt35FCRKuJGu-bDhyjVLrv9FH1ZfXdpvi4Kw-HzZjbMj3NHHc5AEI5Riso6Kd_0Ie4S2WjQllEZRDQFApWqk0x58R92KZxQ-k5gAz7hMOacCgJh33CAYvm84sz7cPpE83tmF-FynvvwDeFUyuXy9U8cPprgv-Yf1xFPcVAQyrGd7-UBFu-zmuJSv8B5DWSEQ</recordid><startdate>20141101</startdate><enddate>20141101</enddate><creator>Murray, Justine V</creator><creator>Berman, David McK</creator><creator>van Klinken, Rieks D</creator><general>Springer-Verlag</general><general>Springer International Publishing</general><general>Springer</general><general>Springer Nature B.V</general><scope>FBQ</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>88A</scope><scope>8AO</scope><scope>8C1</scope><scope>8FE</scope><scope>8FH</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AEUYN</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BBNVY</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BHPHI</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>LK8</scope><scope>M7P</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>20141101</creationdate><title>Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest</title><author>Murray, Justine V ; Berman, David McK ; van Klinken, Rieks D</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c473t-58f456193c40e0edeea811964e6324b78794365fda266653aa9889d17e6023fd3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2014</creationdate><topic>Animal, plant and microbial ecology</topic><topic>Applied ecology</topic><topic>baiting</topic><topic>Bayesian analysis</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Biomedical and Life Sciences</topic><topic>Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife</topic><topic>decision making</topic><topic>Developmental Biology</topic><topic>Disease control</topic><topic>Disease resistance</topic><topic>Ecology</topic><topic>experts</topic><topic>Freshwater & Marine Ecology</topic><topic>Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology</topic><topic>General aspects</topic><topic>General aspects. Techniques</topic><topic>Habitats</topic><topic>Life Sciences</topic><topic>Mammalia</topic><topic>managers</topic><topic>Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...)</topic><topic>Nonnative species</topic><topic>Original Paper</topic><topic>Oryctolagus cuniculus</topic><topic>Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking</topic><topic>Pests</topic><topic>Plant Sciences</topic><topic>predation</topic><topic>Rabbits</topic><topic>ripping</topic><topic>risk</topic><topic>vertebrate pests</topic><topic>Vertebrates</topic><topic>Vertebrates: general zoology, morphology, phylogeny, systematics, cytogenetics, geographical distribution</topic><topic>Wildlife management</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Murray, Justine V</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Berman, David McK</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van Klinken, Rieks D</creatorcontrib><collection>AGRIS</collection><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Entomology Abstracts (Full archive)</collection><collection>Biology Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Pharma Collection</collection><collection>Public Health Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>Natural Science Collection</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Biological Science Collection</collection><collection>Biological Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><jtitle>Biological invasions</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Murray, Justine V</au><au>Berman, David McK</au><au>van Klinken, Rieks D</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest</atitle><jtitle>Biological invasions</jtitle><stitle>Biol Invasions</stitle><date>2014-11-01</date><risdate>2014</risdate><volume>16</volume><issue>11</issue><spage>2403</spage><epage>2425</epage><pages>2403-2425</pages><issn>1387-3547</issn><eissn>1573-1464</eissn><abstract>Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km² region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes.</abstract><cop>Cham</cop><pub>Springer-Verlag</pub><doi>10.1007/s10530-014-0673-6</doi><tpages>23</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Animal, plant and microbial ecology Applied ecology baiting Bayesian analysis Biological and medical sciences Biomedical and Life Sciences Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife decision making Developmental Biology Disease control Disease resistance Ecology experts Freshwater & Marine Ecology Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General aspects General aspects. Techniques Habitats Life Sciences Mammalia managers Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...) Nonnative species Original Paper Oryctolagus cuniculus Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking Pests Plant Sciences predation Rabbits ripping risk vertebrate pests Vertebrates Vertebrates: general zoology, morphology, phylogeny, systematics, cytogenetics, geographical distribution Wildlife management |
| title | Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest |
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