An Approach for Modeling Noncancer Dose Responses with an Emphasis on Uncertainty

This paper presents an approach for characterizing the probability of adverse effects occurring in a population exposed to dose rates in excess of the Reference Dose (RfD). The approach uses a linear threshold (hockey stick) model of response and is based on the current system of uncertainty factors...

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Veröffentlicht in:Risk analysis 1997-08, Vol.17 (4), p.427-437
Hauptverfasser: Price, Paul S., Keenan, Russell E., Swartout, Jeffrey C., Gillis, Carol A., Carlson-Lynch, Heather, Dourson, Michael L.
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container_end_page 437
container_issue 4
container_start_page 427
container_title Risk analysis
container_volume 17
creator Price, Paul S.
Keenan, Russell E.
Swartout, Jeffrey C.
Gillis, Carol A.
Carlson-Lynch, Heather
Dourson, Michael L.
description This paper presents an approach for characterizing the probability of adverse effects occurring in a population exposed to dose rates in excess of the Reference Dose (RfD). The approach uses a linear threshold (hockey stick) model of response and is based on the current system of uncertainty factors used in setting RfDs. The approach requires generally available toxicological estimates such as No‐Observed‐Adverse‐Effect Levels (NOAELs) or Benchmark Doses and doses at which adverse effects are observed in 50% of the test animals (ED50s). In this approach, Monte Carlo analysis is used to characterize the uncertainty in the dose response slope based on the range and magnitude of the key sources of uncertainty in setting protective doses. The method does not require information on the shape of the dose response curve for specific chemicals, but is amenable to the inclusion of such data. The approach is applied to four compounds to produce estimates of response rates for dose rates greater than the RfD
doi_str_mv 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00883.x
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subjects Acetamides - administration & dosage
Acetamides - toxicity
Animals
dose response
Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions
Environmental Pollutants - administration & dosage
Environmental Pollutants - toxicity
Hexachlorobenzene - administration & dosage
Hexachlorobenzene - toxicity
Humans
Linear Models
Mathematics
Models, Biological
Monte Carlo Method
No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Level
Noncarcinogenic
Paraquat - administration & dosage
Paraquat - toxicity
Pentachlorophenol - administration & dosage
Pentachlorophenol - toxicity
Pharmaceutical Preparations - administration & dosage
Pharmaceutical Preparations - standards
probabilistic
Probability
reference dose
Risk Assessment
uncertainty
title An Approach for Modeling Noncancer Dose Responses with an Emphasis on Uncertainty
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