Why Do Winners Keep Winning?

Winners of aggressive interactions often continue to win in future encounters. I propose that this phenomenon is a by-product of two other phenomena occurring simultaneously: first, initiators of aggressive interactions typically win those interactions and, second, winners of aggressive encounters often become more likely to initiate future interactions. I propose that these phenomena can be explained, in turn, by selection favoring an individual's initiating an interaction only when it is likely to win that interaction. I found support for this two-step explanation for the winning begets winning phenomenon by observing aggressive interactions among captive dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis oreganus). First, initiators of interactions almost always won. Second, based on characteristics of winners in birds' home aviaries, I could predict which birds would initiate against novel competitors - winners were long-winged males with dark hoods, and birds with these characteristics were more likely to be the first to initiate in novel triads. In addition, aggression was directed preferentially towards other dark-hooded males. The results of this study may expand our understanding of the dynamics of aggressive interactions.