Analysis and simulations of fragmentation patterns in the Everglades
Sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) communities of Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A), a 43 281 ha Northern Everglades impoundment, are being invaded by cattail (Typha spp.). Results from analyses suggest that the yearly invasion rate of cattails has increased from 1% in 1973 to 4% by 1987. The total are...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Ecological applications 1997-02, Vol.7 (1), p.268-276 |
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| creator | Wu, Yegang Sklar, Fred H. Rutchey, Ken |
| description | Sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) communities of Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A), a 43 281 ha Northern Everglades impoundment, are being invaded by cattail (Typha spp.). Results from analyses suggest that the yearly invasion rate of cattails has increased from 1% in 1973 to 4% by 1987. The total area of the landscape impacted by cattail increased from $ |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0268:AASOFP]2.0.CO;2 |
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Results from analyses suggest that the yearly invasion rate of cattails has increased from 1% in 1973 to 4% by 1987. The total area of the landscape impacted by cattail increased from $<$5% (2054 ha) in 1973 to more than one-third of the landscape (16017 ha) by 1991. The landscape also became more fragmented. The number of sawgrass patches increased from 173 in 1973 to 5709 by 1991. During the same period the lacunarity index of sawgrass changed from 2.8 to 3.9. The effects of agricultural phosphorus (P) runoff and water depth ($D$) on invasion of cattail were expressed as, $\operatorname{Prob}_{pe} = 1/(1 + \alpha e^{-\beta {\mathrm P}}) + \zeta D$/P. The threshold for accelerated cattail invasion was estimated at $\approx$650 mg/kg soil total phosphorus. Cattail dispersal was mostly spatially dependent. For a given year, the probabilities of sawgrass changing to cattail based on the number of 1-8 adjacent cattail cells ($20 \times 20$ m) were calculated to be $\operatorname{Prob}_{ad} = \lbrack 0.049 0.052 0.061 0.065 0.069 0.072 0.076 0.094\rbrack$. The probabilities $\operatorname{Prob}_{pe}$ and $\operatorname{Prob}_{ad}$ were used as Markov chain probabilities in a spatial model to simulate vegetation dynamics. The simulated landscape matched the actual landscape with an overall accuracy of 72.8% and predicted that cattail would invade 50% of WCA-2A in another 6-10 yr if the driving forces remain unchanged.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1051-0761</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1939-5582</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0268:AASOFP]2.0.CO;2</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Ecological Society of America</publisher><subject>CLADIUM JAMAICENSE ; CYPERACEAE ; Ecological modeling ; Everglades ; FOSFORO ; fragmentation ; Freshwater ; landscape ; Landscape ecology ; Landscapes ; Markov transition probability ; pattern ; PHOSPHORE ; PHOSPHORUS ; POLLUTION DE L'EAU ; POLUCION DEL AGUA ; threshold ; Transition probabilities ; Typha ; Typha spp ; Vegetation ; Water depth ; WATER POLLUTION ; Wetland soils ; Wetlands</subject><ispartof>Ecological applications, 1997-02, Vol.7 (1), p.268-276</ispartof><rights>Copyright 1997 Ecological Society of America</rights><rights>1997 by the Ecological Society of America</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4408-fd1f798dfddffec70f846477f94a8c643a7a2595bd147e938e8da9ae25388d823</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c4408-fd1f798dfddffec70f846477f94a8c643a7a2595bd147e938e8da9ae25388d823</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2269423$$EPDF$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.jstor.org/stable/2269423$$EHTML$$P50$$Gjstor$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,799,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551,57992,58225</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wu, Yegang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sklar, Fred H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rutchey, Ken</creatorcontrib><title>Analysis and simulations of fragmentation patterns in the Everglades</title><title>Ecological applications</title><description>Sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) communities of Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A), a 43 281 ha Northern Everglades impoundment, are being invaded by cattail (Typha spp.). Results from analyses suggest that the yearly invasion rate of cattails has increased from 1% in 1973 to 4% by 1987. The total area of the landscape impacted by cattail increased from $<$5% (2054 ha) in 1973 to more than one-third of the landscape (16017 ha) by 1991. The landscape also became more fragmented. The number of sawgrass patches increased from 173 in 1973 to 5709 by 1991. During the same period the lacunarity index of sawgrass changed from 2.8 to 3.9. The effects of agricultural phosphorus (P) runoff and water depth ($D$) on invasion of cattail were expressed as, $\operatorname{Prob}_{pe} = 1/(1 + \alpha e^{-\beta {\mathrm P}}) + \zeta D$/P. The threshold for accelerated cattail invasion was estimated at $\approx$650 mg/kg soil total phosphorus. Cattail dispersal was mostly spatially dependent. For a given year, the probabilities of sawgrass changing to cattail based on the number of 1-8 adjacent cattail cells ($20 \times 20$ m) were calculated to be $\operatorname{Prob}_{ad} = \lbrack 0.049 0.052 0.061 0.065 0.069 0.072 0.076 0.094\rbrack$. The probabilities $\operatorname{Prob}_{pe}$ and $\operatorname{Prob}_{ad}$ were used as Markov chain probabilities in a spatial model to simulate vegetation dynamics. The simulated landscape matched the actual landscape with an overall accuracy of 72.8% and predicted that cattail would invade 50% of WCA-2A in another 6-10 yr if the driving forces remain unchanged.</description><subject>CLADIUM JAMAICENSE</subject><subject>CYPERACEAE</subject><subject>Ecological modeling</subject><subject>Everglades</subject><subject>FOSFORO</subject><subject>fragmentation</subject><subject>Freshwater</subject><subject>landscape</subject><subject>Landscape ecology</subject><subject>Landscapes</subject><subject>Markov transition probability</subject><subject>pattern</subject><subject>PHOSPHORE</subject><subject>PHOSPHORUS</subject><subject>POLLUTION DE L'EAU</subject><subject>POLUCION DEL AGUA</subject><subject>threshold</subject><subject>Transition probabilities</subject><subject>Typha</subject><subject>Typha spp</subject><subject>Vegetation</subject><subject>Water depth</subject><subject>WATER POLLUTION</subject><subject>Wetland soils</subject><subject>Wetlands</subject><issn>1051-0761</issn><issn>1939-5582</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>1997</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNqdkM9LwzAUx4soOKf_gKceRPTQmV9tEj2VuakgTFFPIo_YJLOja2fSKfvvTa2CZ3N54b1vPo98ougMoxEWEoWa4gTxDJ9gKfkpQvwZkUyc5_nDbHr3QkZoNJ5dkK1ogCWVSZoKsh3uv692oz3vFygcQsggusxrVW186WNV69iXy3Wl2rKpfdzY2Do1X5q6_e7EK9W2xoVJWcftm4knH8bNK6WN3492rKq8Ofipw-hpOnkcXye3s6ubcX6bFIwhkViNLZdCW62tNQVHVrCMcW4lU6LIGFVckVSmrxozbiQVRmgllSEpFUILQofRcc9dueZ9bXwLy9IXpqpUbZq1B5xKkYaPhuBVHyxc470zFlauXCq3AYygswidD-h8QGcRgkXoLEJvEQggGM-gW3nfkz7Lymz-i4FJftcFOA7DwDzqmQvfNu4vk9AAICSTjNAQO-xjVjWg5q708PQgOaZMSPoFNWyUVA</recordid><startdate>199702</startdate><enddate>199702</enddate><creator>Wu, Yegang</creator><creator>Sklar, Fred H.</creator><creator>Rutchey, Ken</creator><general>Ecological Society of America</general><scope>FBQ</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7TV</scope><scope>7UA</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H97</scope><scope>L.G</scope></search><sort><creationdate>199702</creationdate><title>Analysis and simulations of fragmentation patterns in the Everglades</title><author>Wu, Yegang ; Sklar, Fred H. ; Rutchey, Ken</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c4408-fd1f798dfddffec70f846477f94a8c643a7a2595bd147e938e8da9ae25388d823</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>1997</creationdate><topic>CLADIUM JAMAICENSE</topic><topic>CYPERACEAE</topic><topic>Ecological modeling</topic><topic>Everglades</topic><topic>FOSFORO</topic><topic>fragmentation</topic><topic>Freshwater</topic><topic>landscape</topic><topic>Landscape ecology</topic><topic>Landscapes</topic><topic>Markov transition probability</topic><topic>pattern</topic><topic>PHOSPHORE</topic><topic>PHOSPHORUS</topic><topic>POLLUTION DE L'EAU</topic><topic>POLUCION DEL AGUA</topic><topic>threshold</topic><topic>Transition probabilities</topic><topic>Typha</topic><topic>Typha spp</topic><topic>Vegetation</topic><topic>Water depth</topic><topic>WATER POLLUTION</topic><topic>Wetland soils</topic><topic>Wetlands</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Wu, Yegang</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sklar, Fred H.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rutchey, Ken</creatorcontrib><collection>AGRIS</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>Ecology Abstracts</collection><collection>Pollution Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management</collection><collection>ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 3: Aquatic Pollution & Environmental Quality</collection><collection>Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional</collection><jtitle>Ecological applications</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Wu, Yegang</au><au>Sklar, Fred H.</au><au>Rutchey, Ken</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Analysis and simulations of fragmentation patterns in the Everglades</atitle><jtitle>Ecological applications</jtitle><date>1997-02</date><risdate>1997</risdate><volume>7</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>268</spage><epage>276</epage><pages>268-276</pages><issn>1051-0761</issn><eissn>1939-5582</eissn><abstract>Sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense) communities of Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A), a 43 281 ha Northern Everglades impoundment, are being invaded by cattail (Typha spp.). Results from analyses suggest that the yearly invasion rate of cattails has increased from 1% in 1973 to 4% by 1987. The total area of the landscape impacted by cattail increased from $<$5% (2054 ha) in 1973 to more than one-third of the landscape (16017 ha) by 1991. The landscape also became more fragmented. The number of sawgrass patches increased from 173 in 1973 to 5709 by 1991. During the same period the lacunarity index of sawgrass changed from 2.8 to 3.9. The effects of agricultural phosphorus (P) runoff and water depth ($D$) on invasion of cattail were expressed as, $\operatorname{Prob}_{pe} = 1/(1 + \alpha e^{-\beta {\mathrm P}}) + \zeta D$/P. The threshold for accelerated cattail invasion was estimated at $\approx$650 mg/kg soil total phosphorus. Cattail dispersal was mostly spatially dependent. For a given year, the probabilities of sawgrass changing to cattail based on the number of 1-8 adjacent cattail cells ($20 \times 20$ m) were calculated to be $\operatorname{Prob}_{ad} = \lbrack 0.049 0.052 0.061 0.065 0.069 0.072 0.076 0.094\rbrack$. The probabilities $\operatorname{Prob}_{pe}$ and $\operatorname{Prob}_{ad}$ were used as Markov chain probabilities in a spatial model to simulate vegetation dynamics. The simulated landscape matched the actual landscape with an overall accuracy of 72.8% and predicted that cattail would invade 50% of WCA-2A in another 6-10 yr if the driving forces remain unchanged.</abstract><pub>Ecological Society of America</pub><doi>10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[0268:AASOFP]2.0.CO;2</doi><tpages>9</tpages></addata></record> |
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| source | Jstor Complete Legacy; Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete |
| subjects | CLADIUM JAMAICENSE CYPERACEAE Ecological modeling Everglades FOSFORO fragmentation Freshwater landscape Landscape ecology Landscapes Markov transition probability pattern PHOSPHORE PHOSPHORUS POLLUTION DE L'EAU POLUCION DEL AGUA threshold Transition probabilities Typha Typha spp Vegetation Water depth WATER POLLUTION Wetland soils Wetlands |
| title | Analysis and simulations of fragmentation patterns in the Everglades |
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