A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection

•A new hybrid neuro-evolutionary algorithm method is proposed for short-term load forecasting.•Neural network’s weights and biases are best tuned by using Differential Evolutionary (DE) algorithm.•A new chaotic feature selection is proposed for designing input vector.•Phase space reconstruction unde...

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Veröffentlicht in:International journal of electrical power & energy systems 2014-11, Vol.62, p.862-867
Hauptverfasser: Kouhi, Sajjad, Keynia, Farshid, Najafi Ravadanegh, Sajad
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container_title International journal of electrical power & energy systems
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creator Kouhi, Sajjad
Keynia, Farshid
Najafi Ravadanegh, Sajad
description •A new hybrid neuro-evolutionary algorithm method is proposed for short-term load forecasting.•Neural network’s weights and biases are best tuned by using Differential Evolutionary (DE) algorithm.•A new chaotic feature selection is proposed for designing input vector.•Phase space reconstruction under Taken’s embedding theorem is used in preparing candidate features. In competitive environment of deregulated electricity market, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a major discussion for efficient operation of power systems. Therefore, the area of electricity load forecasting is still essential need for more accurate and stable load forecast algorithm. However, the electricity load is a non-linear signal with high degree of volatility. In this paper, a new forecasted method based on neural network (NN) and chaotic intelligent feature selection is presented. The proposed feature selection method selects the best set of candidate input which is used as input data for the forecasted. The theory of phase space reconstruction under Taken’s embedding theorem is used to prepare candidate features. Then, candidate inputs relevance to target value are measured by using correlation analysis. Forecast engine is a multilayer perception layer (MLP) NN with hybrid Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) and Differential Evolutionary (DE) learning algorithm. The proposed STLF is tested on PJM and New England electricity markets and compared with some of recent STLF techniques.
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.ijepes.2014.05.036
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subjects Algorithms
Applied sciences
Chaos theory
Chaotic time series
Differential Evolutionary
Electric power generation
Electrical engineering. Electrical power engineering
Electrical power engineering
Electricity
Electricity consumption
Exact sciences and technology
Feature selection
Forecasting
Markets
Miscellaneous
Neural network
Neural networks
Operation. Load control. Reliability
Power networks and lines
Reconstructed phase space
Short-term load forecast
title A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection
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