Model to Predict Pork Price Based on Broad Money Supply and Production Cycles in China

The price of pork in China has become the world's most watched economic indicator because it is directly related to the level of inflation, consumption and domestic demand. Therefore, it is significant to establish a proper model of pork price to forecast its future price tends. In this study,...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Information Technology Journal 2013, Vol.12 (15), p.3320-3324
Hauptverfasser:	Hongquan, Qu, Chenzheng, Li, Changnian, Zhang, Xinyue, Chen, Yuting, Liu
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	China Domestic Economics Fittings Inflation Mathematical models Pork Regression
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creator	Hongquan, Qu Chenzheng, Li Changnian, Zhang Xinyue, Chen Yuting, Liu
description	The price of pork in China has become the world's most watched economic indicator because it is directly related to the level of inflation, consumption and domestic demand. Therefore, it is significant to establish a proper model of pork price to forecast its future price tends. In this study, based on analyzing the change fluctuation data of the pork price, the Broad Money Supply (M2) and the pig growth cycle in recent 10 years, we establish a new pork price model by using linear regression and residual fitting method. Compared with the real pork price data, the fitting precision of the presented model can be smaller than 1.5%. This pork price model can be used to forecast the future distribution range of pork price in China in the future roughly.
doi_str_mv	10.3923/itj.2013.3320.3324
format	Article
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subjects	China Domestic Economics Fittings Inflation Mathematical models Pork Regression
title	Model to Predict Pork Price Based on Broad Money Supply and Production Cycles in China
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