A New Method for Generating Initial Condition Perturbations in a Regional Ensemble Prediction System: Blending
A blending method for generating initial condition (IC) perturbations in a regional ensemble prediction system is proposed. The blending is to combine the large-scale IC perturbations from a global ensemble prediction system (EPS) with the small-scale IC perturbations from a regional EPS by using a...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Monthly weather review 2014-05, Vol.142 (5), p.2043-2059 |
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| container_title | Monthly weather review |
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| creator | Wang, Yong Bellus, Martin Geleyn, Jean-Francois Ma, Xulin Tian, Weihong Weidle, Florian |
| description | A blending method for generating initial condition (IC) perturbations in a regional ensemble prediction system is proposed. The blending is to combine the large-scale IC perturbations from a global ensemble prediction system (EPS) with the small-scale IC perturbations from a regional EPS by using a digital filter and the spectral analysis technique. The IC perturbations generated by blending can well represent both large-scale and small-scale uncertainties in the analysis, and are more consistent with the lateral boundary condition (LBC) perturbations provided by global EPS. The blending method is implemented in the regional ensemble system Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International-Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF), in which the large-scale IC perturbations are provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-EPS), and the small-scale IC perturbations are generated by breeding in ALADIN-LAEF. Blending is compared with dynamical downscaling and breeding over a 2-month period in summer 2007. The comparison clearly shows impact on the growth of forecast spread if the regional IC perturbations are not consistent with the perturbations coming through LBC provided by the global EPS. Blending can cure the problem largely, and it performs better than dynamical downscaling and breeding. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00354.1 |
| format | Article |
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The blending is to combine the large-scale IC perturbations from a global ensemble prediction system (EPS) with the small-scale IC perturbations from a regional EPS by using a digital filter and the spectral analysis technique. The IC perturbations generated by blending can well represent both large-scale and small-scale uncertainties in the analysis, and are more consistent with the lateral boundary condition (LBC) perturbations provided by global EPS. The blending method is implemented in the regional ensemble system Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International-Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF), in which the large-scale IC perturbations are provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-EPS), and the small-scale IC perturbations are generated by breeding in ALADIN-LAEF. Blending is compared with dynamical downscaling and breeding over a 2-month period in summer 2007. The comparison clearly shows impact on the growth of forecast spread if the regional IC perturbations are not consistent with the perturbations coming through LBC provided by the global EPS. Blending can cure the problem largely, and it performs better than dynamical downscaling and breeding.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0027-0644</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1520-0493</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00354.1</identifier><identifier>CODEN: MWREAB</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Washington: American Meteorological Society</publisher><subject>Boundary conditions ; Meteorology ; Spectral analysis ; Weather forecasting</subject><ispartof>Monthly weather review, 2014-05, Vol.142 (5), p.2043-2059</ispartof><rights>Copyright American Meteorological Society May 2014</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c346t-8e66eb0f576f7ea6e71389f8aaf52e7d2505085212d380bb01577620badb47e63</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c346t-8e66eb0f576f7ea6e71389f8aaf52e7d2505085212d380bb01577620badb47e63</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3668,27901,27902</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Wang, Yong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bellus, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Geleyn, Jean-Francois</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ma, Xulin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Tian, Weihong</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Weidle, Florian</creatorcontrib><title>A New Method for Generating Initial Condition Perturbations in a Regional Ensemble Prediction System: Blending</title><title>Monthly weather review</title><description>A blending method for generating initial condition (IC) perturbations in a regional ensemble prediction system is proposed. 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The comparison clearly shows impact on the growth of forecast spread if the regional IC perturbations are not consistent with the perturbations coming through LBC provided by the global EPS. 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The blending is to combine the large-scale IC perturbations from a global ensemble prediction system (EPS) with the small-scale IC perturbations from a regional EPS by using a digital filter and the spectral analysis technique. The IC perturbations generated by blending can well represent both large-scale and small-scale uncertainties in the analysis, and are more consistent with the lateral boundary condition (LBC) perturbations provided by global EPS. The blending method is implemented in the regional ensemble system Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International-Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF), in which the large-scale IC perturbations are provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF-EPS), and the small-scale IC perturbations are generated by breeding in ALADIN-LAEF. Blending is compared with dynamical downscaling and breeding over a 2-month period in summer 2007. The comparison clearly shows impact on the growth of forecast spread if the regional IC perturbations are not consistent with the perturbations coming through LBC provided by the global EPS. Blending can cure the problem largely, and it performs better than dynamical downscaling and breeding.</abstract><cop>Washington</cop><pub>American Meteorological Society</pub><doi>10.1175/MWR-D-12-00354.1</doi><tpages>17</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| source | American Meteorological Society; Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Frei zugängliche E-Journals; Alma/SFX Local Collection |
| subjects | Boundary conditions Meteorology Spectral analysis Weather forecasting |
| title | A New Method for Generating Initial Condition Perturbations in a Regional Ensemble Prediction System: Blending |
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