MODELLING LARGE OPEN ECONOMIES WITH INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES: THE USA AND EURO AREA

Empirical modelling of the linkages between the euro area and the USA requires an open economy framework. The methodology proposed in this paper achieves identification of a structural vector error correction model by supplementing restrictions from economic theory with assumptions for the direction...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of applied econometrics (Chichester, England) England), 2014-04, Vol.29 (3), p.377-393
Hauptverfasser: Dungey, Mardi, Osborn, Denise R.
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description Empirical modelling of the linkages between the euro area and the USA requires an open economy framework. The methodology proposed in this paper achieves identification of a structural vector error correction model by supplementing restrictions from economic theory with assumptions for the direction of causality in cross-country contemporaneous relationships. Our baseline model assumes contemporaneous causality runs from the USA to the euro area for both output and inflation, with monetary policy domestically focused. The role of the USA as leading the euro area business cycle is reinforced by our results, but strong bidirectional cross-country interactions are uncovered for inflation and interest rates.
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subjects Causality
Economic models
Economic theory
Error correction models
Europe
Eurozone
Identification
Inflation
Interest rates
International comparisons
Methodology
Monetary policy
Open economies
Output
Studies
U.S.A
title MODELLING LARGE OPEN ECONOMIES WITH INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES: THE USA AND EURO AREA
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