Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections
The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 ye...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climatic change 2014-03, Vol.123 (2), p.315-328 |
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| creator | Chaturvedi, Rajiv K. Kulkarni, Anil Karyakarte, Yogesh Joshi, Jaideep Bala, G. |
| description | The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 ± 1 Gta
−1
, which decreases about sixfold to -35 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5 |
| format | Article |
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−1
, which decreases about sixfold to -35 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0165-0009</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-1480</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5</identifier><identifier>CODEN: CLCHDX</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands</publisher><subject>Altitude ; Atmospheric Sciences ; Climate ; Climate change ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts ; Climate models ; Climate science ; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earth, ocean, space ; Emission ; Emissions ; Equilibrium ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Glaciers ; Himalayas ; Investigations ; Meteorology ; Precipitation ; Projection ; Science ; Snow ; Snow. Ice. Glaciers ; Standard deviation ; Water resources</subject><ispartof>Climatic change, 2014-03, Vol.123 (2), p.315-328</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014</rights><rights>2015 INIST-CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-a445t-c843bd3a8497de8cf88fbe8a029312d4ea3c9acc45e31eb2d94e16f15add57e93</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-a445t-c843bd3a8497de8cf88fbe8a029312d4ea3c9acc45e31eb2d94e16f15add57e93</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,27901,27902,41464,42533,51294</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=28595304$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Chaturvedi, Rajiv K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kulkarni, Anil</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Karyakarte, Yogesh</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Joshi, Jaideep</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bala, G.</creatorcontrib><title>Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections</title><title>Climatic change</title><addtitle>Climatic Change</addtitle><description>The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 ± 1 Gta
−1
, which decreases about sixfold to -35 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.</description><subject>Altitude</subject><subject>Atmospheric Sciences</subject><subject>Climate</subject><subject>Climate change</subject><subject>Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts</subject><subject>Climate models</subject><subject>Climate science</subject><subject>Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change</subject><subject>Earth and Environmental Science</subject><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subject>Earth, ocean, space</subject><subject>Emission</subject><subject>Emissions</subject><subject>Equilibrium</subject><subject>Exact sciences and technology</subject><subject>External geophysics</subject><subject>Glaciers</subject><subject>Himalayas</subject><subject>Investigations</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Precipitation</subject><subject>Projection</subject><subject>Science</subject><subject>Snow</subject><subject>Snow. Ice. 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Glaciers</topic><topic>Standard deviation</topic><topic>Water resources</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Chaturvedi, Rajiv K.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kulkarni, Anil</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Karyakarte, Yogesh</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Joshi, Jaideep</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Bala, G.</creatorcontrib><collection>Pascal-Francis</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Environment Abstracts</collection><collection>Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts</collection><collection>Oceanic Abstracts</collection><collection>Water Resources Abstracts</collection><collection>ABI-INFORM Complete</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Global (PDF only)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Technology Research Database</collection><collection>ProQuest SciTech Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Technology Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ABI/INFORM Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Research Library (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Materials Science & Engineering Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Sustainability</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database (1962 - 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We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 ± 1 Gta
−1
, which decreases about sixfold to -35 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 ± 2 Gta
−1
by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.</abstract><cop>Dordrecht</cop><pub>Springer Netherlands</pub><doi>10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5</doi><tpages>14</tpages><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Altitude Atmospheric Sciences Climate Climate change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climate models Climate science Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth, ocean, space Emission Emissions Equilibrium Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Glaciers Himalayas Investigations Meteorology Precipitation Projection Science Snow Snow. Ice. Glaciers Standard deviation Water resources |
| title | Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections |
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