Cool weather tourism under global warming: Comparing Arctic summer tourists' weather preferences with regional climate statistics and projections

This article uniquely compares tourists' weather preferences, aversions and acceptances with present and projected future summer weather in Northern Scandinavia. An in situ survey revealed tourist weather preferences (e.g. clear sky, rather warm) and aversions (e.g. frequent rainfall, low visibility). Weather observations and tailored climate projections depict present and future conditions of ‘wet’, ‘cool’, ‘mild’ and ‘warm’ days, and empirical relationships are developed to establish projections for cloudiness and visibility. The projections indicate that tourists' preference for rather warm weather will be met by increasing numbers of mild and warm days. However, the number of ‘wet’ days will increase and prospects for enjoying ‘midnight sun’ tend to be slightly reduced. The study offers a novel approach for better understanding the base of future tourist behaviour under climate change conditions and vital implications for tourism management are identified. Furthermore, advantageous interrelations between different scientific areas for climate change research are illustrated. ► Tourist weather preferences are uniquely compared with projections of future summer weather. ► Tourists' main dislikes are overcast sky, frequent rain and low visibility. ► Projections indicate more warm summer days, increased cloudiness and more wet days. ► Future weather provides both opportunities and challenges for visitors and tourism industry.