Determinants of the Demise of Terrorist Organizations

This article investigates the determinants of terrorist groups' failure by applying survival analysis in a discrete-time specification. Our sample consists of a diverse set of 586 terrorist groups, in which just over 63% end operations (demise) during 1970–2007. We use RAND event data and Jones and Libicki terrorist group data. Findings show that the survival of terrorist groups is bolstered by diversifying attacks, having multiple home bases, locating in the Middle East, locating in a democratic country, and limiting reliance on transnational terrorist attacks. Moreover, larger groups have better survival prospects. Religious fundamentalist terrorist groups face better survival prospects that other terrorist groups. Terrorist groups located in a country with larger tropical territory are less likely to end operations; however, groups based in a landlocked country are more likely to fail.