Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls
Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate forward-looking fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pensi...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | International tax and public finance 2013-10, Vol.20 (5), p.827-866 |
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| container_title | International tax and public finance |
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| creator | Harding, Torfinn van der Ploeg, Frederick |
| description | Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate
forward-looking
fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/s10797-012-9251-y |
| format | Article |
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forward-looking
fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0927-5940</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1573-6970</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1007/s10797-012-9251-y</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Boston: Springer US</publisher><subject>Business cycles ; Business Taxation/Tax Law ; Cost control ; Demographics ; Economic development ; Economics ; Economics and Finance ; Energy market ; Estimates ; Fiscal policy ; Historical analysis ; Hypotheses ; International taxation ; Norway ; Oil ; Pension costs ; Pensions ; Petroleum industry ; Population ; Public Finance ; Simulation ; Sustainability ; Tax increases ; Tax rates ; Tax reform ; Tax revenues</subject><ispartof>International tax and public finance, 2013-10, Vol.20 (5), p.827-866</ispartof><rights>Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012</rights><rights>Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c413t-930c3cd669bc8668df04a0f14844424942a0a189798859e00bccae24fe96a5153</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c413t-930c3cd669bc8668df04a0f14844424942a0a189798859e00bccae24fe96a5153</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10797-012-9251-y$$EPDF$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10797-012-9251-y$$EHTML$$P50$$Gspringer$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,780,784,27924,27925,41488,42557,51319</link.rule.ids></links><search><creatorcontrib>Harding, Torfinn</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Ploeg, Frederick</creatorcontrib><title>Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls</title><title>International tax and public finance</title><addtitle>Int Tax Public Finance</addtitle><description>Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate
forward-looking
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forward-looking
fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful.</abstract><cop>Boston</cop><pub>Springer US</pub><doi>10.1007/s10797-012-9251-y</doi><tpages>40</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | International tax and public finance, 2013-10, Vol.20 (5), p.827-866 |
| issn | 0927-5940 1573-6970 |
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| subjects | Business cycles Business Taxation/Tax Law Cost control Demographics Economic development Economics Economics and Finance Energy market Estimates Fiscal policy Historical analysis Hypotheses International taxation Norway Oil Pension costs Pensions Petroleum industry Population Public Finance Simulation Sustainability Tax increases Tax rates Tax reform Tax revenues |
| title | Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls |
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