Population Dynamical Consequences of Climate Change for a Small Temperate Songbird

Accurate estimation of the likely impacts of predicted anthropogenic climate change phenomena requires modeling of stochastic factors and density-dependent impacts in terms of population dynamics. Findings are presented from a study enacted on a population of the dipper (Cinclus cinculs), a small songbird. The population growth rate of the dipper was impacted by both environmental stochasticity and density dependence. Roughly half of observed environmental variance was explained by variations in mean winter temperature. When these results are incorporated into a stochastic model, researchers concluded that expected climate change phenomena will strongly impact the dynamics of the population-resulting in a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and the expected mean population size.