Integrated decision making for reservoir, irrigation, and crop management

An integrated approach to reservoir, irrigation, and cropping management which links four different models—a hydrologic model (PRMS), a crop growth simulation model (EPIC), an economic model based on linear programming, and a dynamic programming model—is developed and demonstrated. The demonstration is based on an irrigation district located in a subhumid climate with an irrigation reservoir large enough for over-year storage. The model is used to make repeated simulations for various planning horizons. Two different types of results are presented. The first provides the probability that each of the various farm plans (land/crop/water allocation) will be chosen as the optimum in the first year of the planning horizon. The second approach provides probability distributions of accumulated revenues over a chosen length of planning horizon. Each distribution is associated with an initial reservoir level and a particular farm plan in the first year of the planning horizon. The consequence of selecting certain farm plans at the beginning of a specified planning horizon is therefore quantified in a probabilistic way. Based on families of probability–revenue curves, an irrigation manager can simultaneously evaluate crop, irrigation, and reservoir management options.