Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia

Russia's boreal (taiga) biome will likely contract sharply and shift northward in response to 21st century climatic change, yet few studies have examined plant response to climatic variability along the northern margin. We quantified climate dynamics, trends in plant growth, and growth–climate relationships across the tundra shrublands and Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) woodlands of the Kolyma river basin (657 000 km2) in northeastern Siberia using satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), tree ring‐width measurements, and climate data. Mean summer temperatures (Ts) increased 1.0 °C from 1938 to 2009, though there was no trend (P > 0.05) in growing year precipitation or climate moisture index (CMIgy). Mean summer NDVI (NDVIs) increased significantly from 1982 to 2010 across 20% of the watershed, primarily in cold, shrub‐dominated areas. NDVIs positively correlated (P