The influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on the variability of monsoon rainfall over India

This study focuses on the spatial and temporal variability of southwest monsoon (SWM) and northeast monsoon (NEM) rainfall over India, after the 1976–1977 regime shift. Through wavelet analysis the dominant mode of variability in the SWM and NEM rainfall is found to be in the 2–8‐year scale (ENSO band). Therefore, scale‐averaged wavelet power (SAP) of SWM (SAPSWM) and NEM (SAPNEM) rainfall obtained from a high‐resolution dataset for the period 1977–2001 was subjected to empirical orthogonal function analysis, in order to understand the homogenous regions of rainfall variability. As the study utilizes SAP, the decadal variability is observed in the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall. The maximum variability of SAPSWM rainfall is found to be in the 2–4‐year period, whereas, for the SAPNEM rainfall, the biennial mode explains the variability over the core region of NEM rainfall. Significant power is also observed in the 4‐year period. The evolution of the principal components (PCs) is consistent with the above/below normal rainfall received over the region. Similar analysis has been carried out also for the SAP of monthly sea surface temperature (SAPSST) over Indian Ocean for the months from January to September. Compared with any other month, the decadal changes of the PCs of SAPSWM and SAPNEM rainfall are highly correlated with the decadal variations of PC1 of SAPSST for the month of March. Therefore, the relation between the rainfall and SST was explained using SAPSST for the month of March. Significant biennial power is also observed in March SST over southeast Indian Ocean (85–110°E and 5–40°S) after the climate shift of 1976. In order to identify any change in the relation between NEM rainfall and SAPSST (March) before and after 1976, a correlation between NEM rainfall and PC1 of SAPSST (March) was found for the period 1951–1975 and 1977–2001. Results show that correlation has increased after 1976. Therefore, this PC can be made use of in the prediction of NEM rainfall. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society