Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species
A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodil...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Ecology letters 2013-08, Vol.16 (8), p.1095-1103 |
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| container_title | Ecology letters |
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| creator | Quintero, Ignacio Wiens, John J. |
| description | A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1111/ele.12144 |
| format | Article |
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Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1461-023X</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1461-0248</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1111/ele.12144</identifier><identifier>PMID: 23800223</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><subject>Adaptation ; Adaptation, Biological ; Animal and plant ecology ; Animal, plant and microbial ecology ; Animals ; Biological and medical sciences ; Biological Evolution ; Climate ; Climate Change ; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change ; Earth, ocean, space ; Ecosystem ; Evolutionary biology ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; extinction ; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology ; General aspects ; Meteorology ; Models, Biological ; niche evolution ; Phylogenetics ; Phylogeny ; Vertebrates ; Vertebrates - physiology</subject><ispartof>Ecology letters, 2013-08, Vol.16 (8), p.1095-1103</ispartof><rights>2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS</rights><rights>2014 INIST-CNRS</rights><rights>2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5204-5dc6908137da7ab23deb78a5c6615b03d7b0955c2f62228a0401d5035a3fac713</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c5204-5dc6908137da7ab23deb78a5c6615b03d7b0955c2f62228a0401d5035a3fac713</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111%2Fele.12144$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111%2Fele.12144$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,1411,27901,27902,45550,45551</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttp://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=27615408$$DView record in Pascal Francis$$Hfree_for_read</backlink><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23800223$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><contributor>Harmon, Luke</contributor><creatorcontrib>Quintero, Ignacio</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Wiens, John J.</creatorcontrib><title>Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species</title><title>Ecology letters</title><addtitle>Ecol Lett</addtitle><description>A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. 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Psychology</subject><subject>General aspects</subject><subject>Meteorology</subject><subject>Models, Biological</subject><subject>niche evolution</subject><subject>Phylogenetics</subject><subject>Phylogeny</subject><subject>Vertebrates</subject><subject>Vertebrates - physiology</subject><issn>1461-023X</issn><issn>1461-0248</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNqN0V1rFDEUBuAgiq3VC_-ABETQi2nzOZlc1rKu4lKhKPYuZDJn2qzZmTWZqd1_b7azu4IgmJt88JwTkhehl5Sc0jzOIMApZVSIR-iYipIWhInq8WHNr4_Qs5SWhFCmFX2KjhivCGGMH6Pxyg6QcN_ideyX4AZosAt-lU-xu7XdDeAm2rz1zoawwXDvIJO1TQOO-9KpwDvceXcLGO76MA6-77Bd9d0NvoM4QL3VOK3BeUjP0ZPWhgQvdvMJ-vZh9vXiY7H4Mv90cb4onGREFLJxpSYV5aqxytaMN1CrykpXllTWhDeqJlpKx9qSMVZZIghtJOHS8tY6RfkJejv1zY_7OUIazMonByHYDvoxGSqo5orT6j8o11pzoQXL9PVfdNmPscsPeVDZyHKr3k3KxT6lCK1Zx_xNcWMoMdvYTI7NPMSW7atdx7FeQXOQ-5wyeLMDNuUg2mg759Mfp_KHCFJldza5Xz7A5t83mtlitr-6mCp8GuD-UGHjD1MqrqT5fjk3V-_n16VeXJrP_Dd7V7zN</recordid><startdate>201308</startdate><enddate>201308</enddate><creator>Quintero, Ignacio</creator><creator>Wiens, John J.</creator><general>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</general><general>Blackwell</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>IQODW</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7SN</scope><scope>7SS</scope><scope>7U9</scope><scope>C1K</scope><scope>H94</scope><scope>M7N</scope><scope>7X8</scope><scope>7ST</scope><scope>7TG</scope><scope>7U6</scope><scope>F1W</scope><scope>H95</scope><scope>KL.</scope><scope>L.G</scope><scope>SOI</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201308</creationdate><title>Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species</title><author>Quintero, Ignacio ; Wiens, John J.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c5204-5dc6908137da7ab23deb78a5c6615b03d7b0955c2f62228a0401d5035a3fac713</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>Adaptation</topic><topic>Adaptation, Biological</topic><topic>Animal and plant ecology</topic><topic>Animal, plant and microbial ecology</topic><topic>Animals</topic><topic>Biological and medical sciences</topic><topic>Biological Evolution</topic><topic>Climate</topic><topic>Climate Change</topic><topic>Climatology. 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Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. 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| subjects | Adaptation Adaptation, Biological Animal and plant ecology Animal, plant and microbial ecology Animals Biological and medical sciences Biological Evolution Climate Climate Change Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Earth, ocean, space Ecosystem Evolutionary biology Exact sciences and technology External geophysics extinction Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General aspects Meteorology Models, Biological niche evolution Phylogenetics Phylogeny Vertebrates Vertebrates - physiology |
| title | Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species |
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