Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future
Objective To examine the incidence, mortality and case fatality of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Finland during 1993–2007 and to create forecasts of the absolute numbers of ACS cases in the future, taking into account the aging of the population. Design Community surveillance study and modelled f...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Heart (British Cardiac Society) 2013-07, Vol.99 (13), p.954-959 |
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| creator | Salomaa, Veikko Havulinna, Aki S Koukkunen, Heli Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi Pietilä, Arto Mustonen, Juha Ketonen, Matti Lehtonen, Aapo Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo Lehto, Seppo Airaksinen, Juhani Kesäniemi, Y Antero |
| description | Objective To examine the incidence, mortality and case fatality of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Finland during 1993–2007 and to create forecasts of the absolute numbers of ACS cases in the future, taking into account the aging of the population. Design Community surveillance study and modelled forecasts of the future. Setting and methods Two sets of population-based coronary event register data from Finland (FINAMI and the National Cardiovascular Disease Register (CVDR)). Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) modelling. Participants 24 905 observed ACS events in the FINAMI register and 364 137 in CVDR. Main outcome measures Observed trends of ACS events during 1993–2007, forecasted numbers of ACS cases, and the prevalence of ACS survivors until the year 2050. Results In the FINAMI register, the average annual declines in age-standardised incidence of ACS were 1.6% (p |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1136/heartjnl-2012-303216 |
| format | Article |
| fullrecord | <record><control><sourceid>proquest_cross</sourceid><recordid>TN_cdi_proquest_miscellaneous_1365987367</recordid><sourceformat>XML</sourceformat><sourcesystem>PC</sourcesystem><sourcerecordid>1365987367</sourcerecordid><originalsourceid>FETCH-LOGICAL-b413t-8eafba34e6399326e532a52f7881ae0fdcd531a83ceed97cdd21c5b8c5bab6a3</originalsourceid><addsrcrecordid>eNqNkctu1TAQhiMEohd4A4QssekmrR3HubArR4UiVSCgOmJnTexJm0NiH3ypOE_TV8VperpgxcLyaOabX7_mz7I3jJ4yxquzWwQXNmbMC8qKnFNesOpZdsjKqplbP5-nmguRV5TXB9mR9xtKadk21cvsoOCibURZHGb35zeDuSG2J-EWydZu4whhsIZMsCPGBjIiaBIsAUMGoxyCx1Q80CZOHTo_L4OKAYmyzhpwO4J3aIJ_TyC1pimaIeyIj-4Oh3EEo5D4EPUuaWoyWY3jiJr01qECH_Ze-hiiw1fZix5Gj68f_-Ps-uPF9eoyv_r66fPq_CrvSsZD3iD0HfASK962vKhQ8AJE0ddNwwBpr5UWnEHDFaJua6V1wZTomvSgq4AfZyeL7NbZ3xF9kNPgFc5u0UYv08HTxWpe1Ql99w-6sdGZZE6yuqF1SRmfqXKhlLPeO-zl1g1Tuo1kVM75yX1-cs5PLvmltbeP4rGbUD8t7QNLQL4Agw_452kO7pdM3mohv6xX8oNY_7ik62_ye-LPFr6bNv9n4S_YSLpj</addsrcrecordid><sourcetype>Aggregation Database</sourcetype><iscdi>true</iscdi><recordtype>article</recordtype><pqid>1780740137</pqid></control><display><type>article</type><title>Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future</title><source>MEDLINE</source><source>BMJ Journals - NESLi2</source><source>PubMed Central</source><creator>Salomaa, Veikko ; Havulinna, Aki S ; Koukkunen, Heli ; Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi ; Pietilä, Arto ; Mustonen, Juha ; Ketonen, Matti ; Lehtonen, Aapo ; Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo ; Lehto, Seppo ; Airaksinen, Juhani ; Kesäniemi, Y Antero</creator><creatorcontrib>Salomaa, Veikko ; Havulinna, Aki S ; Koukkunen, Heli ; Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi ; Pietilä, Arto ; Mustonen, Juha ; Ketonen, Matti ; Lehtonen, Aapo ; Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo ; Lehto, Seppo ; Airaksinen, Juhani ; Kesäniemi, Y Antero</creatorcontrib><description>Objective To examine the incidence, mortality and case fatality of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Finland during 1993–2007 and to create forecasts of the absolute numbers of ACS cases in the future, taking into account the aging of the population. Design Community surveillance study and modelled forecasts of the future. Setting and methods Two sets of population-based coronary event register data from Finland (FINAMI and the National Cardiovascular Disease Register (CVDR)). Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) modelling. Participants 24 905 observed ACS events in the FINAMI register and 364 137 in CVDR. Main outcome measures Observed trends of ACS events during 1993–2007, forecasted numbers of ACS cases, and the prevalence of ACS survivors until the year 2050. Results In the FINAMI register, the average annual declines in age-standardised incidence of ACS were 1.6% (p<0.001) in men and 1.8% (p<0.001) in women. For 28-day case fatality of incident ACS, the average annual declines were 4.1% (p<0.001) in men and 6.7% (p<0.001) in women. Findings in the country-wide CVDR data were consistent with the FINAMI register. The APC model, based on the CVDR data, suggested that both the absolute numbers of ACS events and the prevalence of ACS survivors reached their peak in Finland around 1990, have declined since then, and very likely will continue to decline until 2050. Conclusions The ACS event rates and absolute numbers of cases have declined steeply in Finland. The declining trends are likely to continue in the future despite the aging of the population.</description><identifier>ISSN: 1355-6037</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1468-201X</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2012-303216</identifier><identifier>PMID: 23598542</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Cardiovascular Society</publisher><subject>Acute Coronary Syndrome - epidemiology ; Acute Coronary Syndrome - mortality ; Age Factors ; Age of Onset ; Aged ; Aging ; Bayes Theorem ; Cardiovascular disease ; Comorbidity ; Computer Simulation ; CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE ; Epidemiology - trends ; Fatalities ; Female ; Finland - epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Incidence ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Markov Chains ; Middle Aged ; Models, Statistical ; Monte Carlo Method ; Mortality ; Registries ; Survivors - statistics & numerical data ; Time Factors ; Trends</subject><ispartof>Heart (British Cardiac Society), 2013-07, Vol.99 (13), p.954-959</ispartof><rights>Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions</rights><rights>Copyright: 2013 Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-b413t-8eafba34e6399326e532a52f7881ae0fdcd531a83ceed97cdd21c5b8c5bab6a3</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-b413t-8eafba34e6399326e532a52f7881ae0fdcd531a83ceed97cdd21c5b8c5bab6a3</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttp://heart.bmj.com/content/99/13/954.full.pdf$$EPDF$$P50$$Gbmj$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttp://heart.bmj.com/content/99/13/954.full$$EHTML$$P50$$Gbmj$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>114,115,314,780,784,3196,23571,27924,27925,77600,77631</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23598542$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Salomaa, Veikko</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Havulinna, Aki S</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Koukkunen, Heli</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pietilä, Arto</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mustonen, Juha</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ketonen, Matti</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lehtonen, Aapo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lehto, Seppo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Airaksinen, Juhani</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kesäniemi, Y Antero</creatorcontrib><title>Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future</title><title>Heart (British Cardiac Society)</title><addtitle>Heart</addtitle><description>Objective To examine the incidence, mortality and case fatality of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Finland during 1993–2007 and to create forecasts of the absolute numbers of ACS cases in the future, taking into account the aging of the population. Design Community surveillance study and modelled forecasts of the future. Setting and methods Two sets of population-based coronary event register data from Finland (FINAMI and the National Cardiovascular Disease Register (CVDR)). Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) modelling. Participants 24 905 observed ACS events in the FINAMI register and 364 137 in CVDR. Main outcome measures Observed trends of ACS events during 1993–2007, forecasted numbers of ACS cases, and the prevalence of ACS survivors until the year 2050. Results In the FINAMI register, the average annual declines in age-standardised incidence of ACS were 1.6% (p<0.001) in men and 1.8% (p<0.001) in women. For 28-day case fatality of incident ACS, the average annual declines were 4.1% (p<0.001) in men and 6.7% (p<0.001) in women. Findings in the country-wide CVDR data were consistent with the FINAMI register. The APC model, based on the CVDR data, suggested that both the absolute numbers of ACS events and the prevalence of ACS survivors reached their peak in Finland around 1990, have declined since then, and very likely will continue to decline until 2050. Conclusions The ACS event rates and absolute numbers of cases have declined steeply in Finland. The declining trends are likely to continue in the future despite the aging of the population.</description><subject>Acute Coronary Syndrome - epidemiology</subject><subject>Acute Coronary Syndrome - mortality</subject><subject>Age Factors</subject><subject>Age of Onset</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aging</subject><subject>Bayes Theorem</subject><subject>Cardiovascular disease</subject><subject>Comorbidity</subject><subject>Computer Simulation</subject><subject>CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE</subject><subject>Epidemiology - trends</subject><subject>Fatalities</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Finland - epidemiology</subject><subject>Forecasting</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Incidence</subject><subject>Logistic Models</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Markov Chains</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Models, Statistical</subject><subject>Monte Carlo Method</subject><subject>Mortality</subject><subject>Registries</subject><subject>Survivors - statistics & numerical data</subject><subject>Time Factors</subject><subject>Trends</subject><issn>1355-6037</issn><issn>1468-201X</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><sourceid>ABUWG</sourceid><sourceid>AFKRA</sourceid><sourceid>AZQEC</sourceid><sourceid>BENPR</sourceid><sourceid>CCPQU</sourceid><sourceid>DWQXO</sourceid><sourceid>GNUQQ</sourceid><recordid>eNqNkctu1TAQhiMEohd4A4QssekmrR3HubArR4UiVSCgOmJnTexJm0NiH3ypOE_TV8VperpgxcLyaOabX7_mz7I3jJ4yxquzWwQXNmbMC8qKnFNesOpZdsjKqplbP5-nmguRV5TXB9mR9xtKadk21cvsoOCibURZHGb35zeDuSG2J-EWydZu4whhsIZMsCPGBjIiaBIsAUMGoxyCx1Q80CZOHTo_L4OKAYmyzhpwO4J3aIJ_TyC1pimaIeyIj-4Oh3EEo5D4EPUuaWoyWY3jiJr01qECH_Ze-hiiw1fZix5Gj68f_-Ps-uPF9eoyv_r66fPq_CrvSsZD3iD0HfASK962vKhQ8AJE0ddNwwBpr5UWnEHDFaJua6V1wZTomvSgq4AfZyeL7NbZ3xF9kNPgFc5u0UYv08HTxWpe1Ql99w-6sdGZZE6yuqF1SRmfqXKhlLPeO-zl1g1Tuo1kVM75yX1-cs5PLvmltbeP4rGbUD8t7QNLQL4Agw_452kO7pdM3mohv6xX8oNY_7ik62_ye-LPFr6bNv9n4S_YSLpj</recordid><startdate>201307</startdate><enddate>201307</enddate><creator>Salomaa, Veikko</creator><creator>Havulinna, Aki S</creator><creator>Koukkunen, Heli</creator><creator>Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi</creator><creator>Pietilä, Arto</creator><creator>Mustonen, Juha</creator><creator>Ketonen, Matti</creator><creator>Lehtonen, Aapo</creator><creator>Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo</creator><creator>Lehto, Seppo</creator><creator>Airaksinen, Juhani</creator><creator>Kesäniemi, Y Antero</creator><general>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Cardiovascular Society</general><general>BMJ Publishing Group LTD</general><scope>BSCLL</scope><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>3V.</scope><scope>7X7</scope><scope>7XB</scope><scope>88E</scope><scope>88I</scope><scope>8AF</scope><scope>8FI</scope><scope>8FJ</scope><scope>8FK</scope><scope>ABUWG</scope><scope>AFKRA</scope><scope>AZQEC</scope><scope>BENPR</scope><scope>BTHHO</scope><scope>CCPQU</scope><scope>DWQXO</scope><scope>FYUFA</scope><scope>GHDGH</scope><scope>GNUQQ</scope><scope>HCIFZ</scope><scope>K9.</scope><scope>M0S</scope><scope>M1P</scope><scope>M2P</scope><scope>PQEST</scope><scope>PQQKQ</scope><scope>PQUKI</scope><scope>PRINS</scope><scope>Q9U</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201307</creationdate><title>Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future</title><author>Salomaa, Veikko ; Havulinna, Aki S ; Koukkunen, Heli ; Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi ; Pietilä, Arto ; Mustonen, Juha ; Ketonen, Matti ; Lehtonen, Aapo ; Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo ; Lehto, Seppo ; Airaksinen, Juhani ; Kesäniemi, Y Antero</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-b413t-8eafba34e6399326e532a52f7881ae0fdcd531a83ceed97cdd21c5b8c5bab6a3</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>Acute Coronary Syndrome - epidemiology</topic><topic>Acute Coronary Syndrome - mortality</topic><topic>Age Factors</topic><topic>Age of Onset</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aging</topic><topic>Bayes Theorem</topic><topic>Cardiovascular disease</topic><topic>Comorbidity</topic><topic>Computer Simulation</topic><topic>CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE</topic><topic>Epidemiology - trends</topic><topic>Fatalities</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Finland - epidemiology</topic><topic>Forecasting</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Incidence</topic><topic>Logistic Models</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Markov Chains</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Models, Statistical</topic><topic>Monte Carlo Method</topic><topic>Mortality</topic><topic>Registries</topic><topic>Survivors - statistics & numerical data</topic><topic>Time Factors</topic><topic>Trends</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Salomaa, Veikko</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Havulinna, Aki S</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Koukkunen, Heli</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Pietilä, Arto</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mustonen, Juha</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Ketonen, Matti</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lehtonen, Aapo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Lehto, Seppo</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Airaksinen, Juhani</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Kesäniemi, Y Antero</creatorcontrib><collection>Istex</collection><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Corporate)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>Medical Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Science Database (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>STEM Database</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection</collection><collection>Hospital Premium Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central UK/Ireland</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Essentials</collection><collection>ProQuest Central</collection><collection>BMJ Journals</collection><collection>ProQuest One Community College</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Korea</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection</collection><collection>Health Research Premium Collection (Alumni)</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Student</collection><collection>SciTech Premium Collection</collection><collection>ProQuest Health & Medical Complete (Alumni)</collection><collection>Health & Medical Collection (Alumni Edition)</collection><collection>Medical Database</collection><collection>Science Database</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE)</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic</collection><collection>ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition</collection><collection>ProQuest Central China</collection><collection>ProQuest Central Basic</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Heart (British Cardiac Society)</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Salomaa, Veikko</au><au>Havulinna, Aki S</au><au>Koukkunen, Heli</au><au>Kärjä-Koskenkari, Päivi</au><au>Pietilä, Arto</au><au>Mustonen, Juha</au><au>Ketonen, Matti</au><au>Lehtonen, Aapo</au><au>Immonen-Räihä, Pirjo</au><au>Lehto, Seppo</au><au>Airaksinen, Juhani</au><au>Kesäniemi, Y Antero</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future</atitle><jtitle>Heart (British Cardiac Society)</jtitle><addtitle>Heart</addtitle><date>2013-07</date><risdate>2013</risdate><volume>99</volume><issue>13</issue><spage>954</spage><epage>959</epage><pages>954-959</pages><issn>1355-6037</issn><eissn>1468-201X</eissn><abstract>Objective To examine the incidence, mortality and case fatality of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Finland during 1993–2007 and to create forecasts of the absolute numbers of ACS cases in the future, taking into account the aging of the population. Design Community surveillance study and modelled forecasts of the future. Setting and methods Two sets of population-based coronary event register data from Finland (FINAMI and the National Cardiovascular Disease Register (CVDR)). Bayesian age–period–cohort (APC) modelling. Participants 24 905 observed ACS events in the FINAMI register and 364 137 in CVDR. Main outcome measures Observed trends of ACS events during 1993–2007, forecasted numbers of ACS cases, and the prevalence of ACS survivors until the year 2050. Results In the FINAMI register, the average annual declines in age-standardised incidence of ACS were 1.6% (p<0.001) in men and 1.8% (p<0.001) in women. For 28-day case fatality of incident ACS, the average annual declines were 4.1% (p<0.001) in men and 6.7% (p<0.001) in women. Findings in the country-wide CVDR data were consistent with the FINAMI register. The APC model, based on the CVDR data, suggested that both the absolute numbers of ACS events and the prevalence of ACS survivors reached their peak in Finland around 1990, have declined since then, and very likely will continue to decline until 2050. Conclusions The ACS event rates and absolute numbers of cases have declined steeply in Finland. The declining trends are likely to continue in the future despite the aging of the population.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Cardiovascular Society</pub><pmid>23598542</pmid><doi>10.1136/heartjnl-2012-303216</doi><tpages>6</tpages></addata></record> |
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| ispartof | Heart (British Cardiac Society), 2013-07, Vol.99 (13), p.954-959 |
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| subjects | Acute Coronary Syndrome - epidemiology Acute Coronary Syndrome - mortality Age Factors Age of Onset Aged Aging Bayes Theorem Cardiovascular disease Comorbidity Computer Simulation CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE Epidemiology - trends Fatalities Female Finland - epidemiology Forecasting Humans Incidence Logistic Models Male Markov Chains Middle Aged Models, Statistical Monte Carlo Method Mortality Registries Survivors - statistics & numerical data Time Factors Trends |
| title | Aging of the population may not lead to an increase in the numbers of acute coronary events: a community surveillance study and modelled forecast of the future |
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