Identification of high-risk individuals for the development of disability in activities of daily living. A ten-year follow-up study
Independence in activities of daily living (ADL) is important in an aging population. ADL disability is a multifactorial problem, therefore a multifactorial approach is needed in the prediction of ADL disability. Our objective is to identify predictors for the development of ADL disability over a co...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Experimental gerontology 2013-04, Vol.48 (4), p.437-443 |
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| creator | den Ouden, Marjolein E.M. Schuurmans, Marieke J. Mueller-Schotte, Sigrid van der Schouw, Y.T. |
| description | Independence in activities of daily living (ADL) is important in an aging population. ADL disability is a multifactorial problem, therefore a multifactorial approach is needed in the prediction of ADL disability. Our objective is to identify predictors for the development of ADL disability over a course of ten years in middle-aged and older persons. In a prospective cohort study, 478 middle-aged and older persons (61.2years, range 40–78years) without ADL disability at baseline were included. ADL disability was measured using the Katz-questionnaire. We included the following candidate predictors: number of chronic diseases, MMSE, Short Physical Performance Battery, leg strength, handgrip strength, physical activity, cholesterol/HDL ratio, BMI, pulse wave velocity, the degree of urbanization, age, gender and socioeconomic status. Associations between candidate predictors and ADL disability were examined using Poisson regression analysis. Performance of the prediction model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. The number of chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status were predictors of ADL disability at ten-year follow-up. The model showed a good calibration and discrimination (c-statistic: 0.83) between persons who will and will not develop ADL disability. In conclusion, the present study showed that using a multifactorial prediction model – based on easily and readily available measurements – individuals who are at high risk of developing ADL disability could be identified. The prediction model could be used as a screening tool to identify which persons most likely benefit from preventive strategies and interventions.
► We developed a model to predict the risk of ADL disability over a course of ten years. ► Aim prediction model: to timely identify high-risk individuals ► Predictors included chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status. ► The model's c-statistic was 0.84, which indicates a good discriminative ability. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1016/j.exger.2013.02.002 |
| format | Article |
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► We developed a model to predict the risk of ADL disability over a course of ten years. ► Aim prediction model: to timely identify high-risk individuals ► Predictors included chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status. ► The model's c-statistic was 0.84, which indicates a good discriminative ability.</description><identifier>ISSN: 0531-5565</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1873-6815</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1016/j.exger.2013.02.002</identifier><identifier>PMID: 23403381</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>England: Elsevier Inc</publisher><subject>Activities of daily living ; Activities of Daily Living - psychology ; Adult ; Aged ; Aging - physiology ; Aging - psychology ; Causality ; Chronic Disease - epidemiology ; Chronic Disease - psychology ; Disability ; Disability Evaluation ; Disabled Persons - psychology ; Disabled Persons - rehabilitation ; Elderly ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Geriatric Assessment - methods ; Hand Strength ; Health Status Disparities ; Humans ; Intelligence Tests ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Statistical ; Multifactorial ; Prediction ; Psychomotor Performance ; Social Class ; Surveys and Questionnaires</subject><ispartof>Experimental gerontology, 2013-04, Vol.48 (4), p.437-443</ispartof><rights>2013 Elsevier Inc.</rights><rights>Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c359t-c07148029b2829dea384c3e2f891364b08eb0097bf6eff965305217197bc72163</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c359t-c07148029b2829dea384c3e2f891364b08eb0097bf6eff965305217197bc72163</cites></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0531556513000338$$EHTML$$P50$$Gelsevier$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>314,776,780,3536,27903,27904,65309</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23403381$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>den Ouden, Marjolein E.M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schuurmans, Marieke J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mueller-Schotte, Sigrid</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Schouw, Y.T.</creatorcontrib><title>Identification of high-risk individuals for the development of disability in activities of daily living. A ten-year follow-up study</title><title>Experimental gerontology</title><addtitle>Exp Gerontol</addtitle><description>Independence in activities of daily living (ADL) is important in an aging population. ADL disability is a multifactorial problem, therefore a multifactorial approach is needed in the prediction of ADL disability. Our objective is to identify predictors for the development of ADL disability over a course of ten years in middle-aged and older persons. In a prospective cohort study, 478 middle-aged and older persons (61.2years, range 40–78years) without ADL disability at baseline were included. ADL disability was measured using the Katz-questionnaire. We included the following candidate predictors: number of chronic diseases, MMSE, Short Physical Performance Battery, leg strength, handgrip strength, physical activity, cholesterol/HDL ratio, BMI, pulse wave velocity, the degree of urbanization, age, gender and socioeconomic status. Associations between candidate predictors and ADL disability were examined using Poisson regression analysis. Performance of the prediction model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. The number of chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status were predictors of ADL disability at ten-year follow-up. The model showed a good calibration and discrimination (c-statistic: 0.83) between persons who will and will not develop ADL disability. In conclusion, the present study showed that using a multifactorial prediction model – based on easily and readily available measurements – individuals who are at high risk of developing ADL disability could be identified. The prediction model could be used as a screening tool to identify which persons most likely benefit from preventive strategies and interventions.
► We developed a model to predict the risk of ADL disability over a course of ten years. ► Aim prediction model: to timely identify high-risk individuals ► Predictors included chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status. ► The model's c-statistic was 0.84, which indicates a good discriminative ability.</description><subject>Activities of daily living</subject><subject>Activities of Daily Living - psychology</subject><subject>Adult</subject><subject>Aged</subject><subject>Aging - physiology</subject><subject>Aging - psychology</subject><subject>Causality</subject><subject>Chronic Disease - epidemiology</subject><subject>Chronic Disease - psychology</subject><subject>Disability</subject><subject>Disability Evaluation</subject><subject>Disabled Persons - psychology</subject><subject>Disabled Persons - rehabilitation</subject><subject>Elderly</subject><subject>Female</subject><subject>Follow-Up Studies</subject><subject>Geriatric Assessment - methods</subject><subject>Hand Strength</subject><subject>Health Status Disparities</subject><subject>Humans</subject><subject>Intelligence Tests</subject><subject>Male</subject><subject>Middle Aged</subject><subject>Models, Statistical</subject><subject>Multifactorial</subject><subject>Prediction</subject><subject>Psychomotor Performance</subject><subject>Social Class</subject><subject>Surveys and Questionnaires</subject><issn>0531-5565</issn><issn>1873-6815</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2013</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><sourceid>EIF</sourceid><recordid>eNp9kMFu1DAQhi0EokvbJ0BCPnJJGNubxDlwqKoClSpxgbPl2JPdWbLJYjsLOffF8XYLR06Wxt8_v-Zj7K2AUoCoP-xK_L3BUEoQqgRZAsgXbCV0o4pai-olW0GlRFFVdXXB3sS4A4BaKvGaXUi1BqW0WLHHe49jop6cTTSNfOr5ljbbIlD8wWn0dCQ_2yHyfgo8bZF7POIwHfY5dYI9RdvRQGnJNLcu5UAijE9_loaFD3kybkp-wxOOxYI25F3DMP0q5gOPafbLFXvV5wq8fn4v2fdPd99uvxQPXz_f3948FE5VbSocNGKtQbad1LL1aJVeO4Wy161Q9boDjR1A23R9jX3f1pWCSopG5IlrpKjVJXt_3nsI088ZYzJ7ig6HwY44zdEIJTS0CqTOqDqjLkwxBuzNIdDehsUIMCf7Zmee7JuTfQPSZPs59e65YO726P9l_urOwMczgPnMI-V4dISjQ08BXTJ-ov8W_AGaDZfS</recordid><startdate>201304</startdate><enddate>201304</enddate><creator>den Ouden, Marjolein E.M.</creator><creator>Schuurmans, Marieke J.</creator><creator>Mueller-Schotte, Sigrid</creator><creator>van der Schouw, Y.T.</creator><general>Elsevier Inc</general><scope>CGR</scope><scope>CUY</scope><scope>CVF</scope><scope>ECM</scope><scope>EIF</scope><scope>NPM</scope><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>7X8</scope></search><sort><creationdate>201304</creationdate><title>Identification of high-risk individuals for the development of disability in activities of daily living. A ten-year follow-up study</title><author>den Ouden, Marjolein E.M. ; Schuurmans, Marieke J. ; Mueller-Schotte, Sigrid ; van der Schouw, Y.T.</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c359t-c07148029b2829dea384c3e2f891364b08eb0097bf6eff965305217197bc72163</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2013</creationdate><topic>Activities of daily living</topic><topic>Activities of Daily Living - psychology</topic><topic>Adult</topic><topic>Aged</topic><topic>Aging - physiology</topic><topic>Aging - psychology</topic><topic>Causality</topic><topic>Chronic Disease - epidemiology</topic><topic>Chronic Disease - psychology</topic><topic>Disability</topic><topic>Disability Evaluation</topic><topic>Disabled Persons - psychology</topic><topic>Disabled Persons - rehabilitation</topic><topic>Elderly</topic><topic>Female</topic><topic>Follow-Up Studies</topic><topic>Geriatric Assessment - methods</topic><topic>Hand Strength</topic><topic>Health Status Disparities</topic><topic>Humans</topic><topic>Intelligence Tests</topic><topic>Male</topic><topic>Middle Aged</topic><topic>Models, Statistical</topic><topic>Multifactorial</topic><topic>Prediction</topic><topic>Psychomotor Performance</topic><topic>Social Class</topic><topic>Surveys and Questionnaires</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>den Ouden, Marjolein E.M.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Schuurmans, Marieke J.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Mueller-Schotte, Sigrid</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>van der Schouw, Y.T.</creatorcontrib><collection>Medline</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE (Ovid)</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>MEDLINE</collection><collection>PubMed</collection><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>MEDLINE - Academic</collection><jtitle>Experimental gerontology</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>den Ouden, Marjolein E.M.</au><au>Schuurmans, Marieke J.</au><au>Mueller-Schotte, Sigrid</au><au>van der Schouw, Y.T.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Identification of high-risk individuals for the development of disability in activities of daily living. A ten-year follow-up study</atitle><jtitle>Experimental gerontology</jtitle><addtitle>Exp Gerontol</addtitle><date>2013-04</date><risdate>2013</risdate><volume>48</volume><issue>4</issue><spage>437</spage><epage>443</epage><pages>437-443</pages><issn>0531-5565</issn><eissn>1873-6815</eissn><abstract>Independence in activities of daily living (ADL) is important in an aging population. ADL disability is a multifactorial problem, therefore a multifactorial approach is needed in the prediction of ADL disability. Our objective is to identify predictors for the development of ADL disability over a course of ten years in middle-aged and older persons. In a prospective cohort study, 478 middle-aged and older persons (61.2years, range 40–78years) without ADL disability at baseline were included. ADL disability was measured using the Katz-questionnaire. We included the following candidate predictors: number of chronic diseases, MMSE, Short Physical Performance Battery, leg strength, handgrip strength, physical activity, cholesterol/HDL ratio, BMI, pulse wave velocity, the degree of urbanization, age, gender and socioeconomic status. Associations between candidate predictors and ADL disability were examined using Poisson regression analysis. Performance of the prediction model was assessed with calibration and discrimination measures. The number of chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status were predictors of ADL disability at ten-year follow-up. The model showed a good calibration and discrimination (c-statistic: 0.83) between persons who will and will not develop ADL disability. In conclusion, the present study showed that using a multifactorial prediction model – based on easily and readily available measurements – individuals who are at high risk of developing ADL disability could be identified. The prediction model could be used as a screening tool to identify which persons most likely benefit from preventive strategies and interventions.
► We developed a model to predict the risk of ADL disability over a course of ten years. ► Aim prediction model: to timely identify high-risk individuals ► Predictors included chronic diseases, muscle strength, age, gender and socioeconomic status. ► The model's c-statistic was 0.84, which indicates a good discriminative ability.</abstract><cop>England</cop><pub>Elsevier Inc</pub><pmid>23403381</pmid><doi>10.1016/j.exger.2013.02.002</doi><tpages>7</tpages></addata></record> |
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| subjects | Activities of daily living Activities of Daily Living - psychology Adult Aged Aging - physiology Aging - psychology Causality Chronic Disease - epidemiology Chronic Disease - psychology Disability Disability Evaluation Disabled Persons - psychology Disabled Persons - rehabilitation Elderly Female Follow-Up Studies Geriatric Assessment - methods Hand Strength Health Status Disparities Humans Intelligence Tests Male Middle Aged Models, Statistical Multifactorial Prediction Psychomotor Performance Social Class Surveys and Questionnaires |
| title | Identification of high-risk individuals for the development of disability in activities of daily living. A ten-year follow-up study |
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