Predicting Douglas-fir Sapling Mortality Following Prescribed Fire in an Encroached Grassland

Tree encroachment in fire‐maintained woodlands and grasslands is a major management concern, yet little information exists regarding the mechanisms of small tree mortality following prescribed burns. We sought to clarify the relative importance of tree size and fire‐induced injury in the post‐fire mortality of encroaching Douglas‐fir trees and to compare results with an existing mortality model for larger Douglas‐fir trees. Crown injury to small Douglas‐fir trees was a significant explanatory variable in post‐fire mortality models, with results suggesting a 20% threshold in crown scorch. Crown injury was strongly related to bole injury, and delayed mortality was important as we documented new mortality 20 months post‐burn. Mortality models for large Douglas‐fir tend to over‐predict small tree mortality, underscoring the need to better understand the mechanisms of fire‐caused mortality for small, encroaching trees.